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Oct
10
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Cyclone 17L (Ophelia) is located about 785 miles southwest of the Azores

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/17L/imagery/rb0-lalo.gif

Tropical Storm Ophelia remains active over the far eastern Atlantic…heading towards being a Category 1 hurricane Thursday

Here’s a satellite view, with the looping version…along with what the computer models are showing

Tropical Storm Ophelia continued to strengthen, far out in the Atlantic, and the National Hurricane Center said it could become a hurricane Wednesday.

While the storm poses no threat to land at the moment, it could become the 10th consecutive storm to grow to hurricane strength…a streak of intense systems that will tie a record last set in the late 1800’s.

It comes in a season that has already produced five major hurricanes, including three Category 5 storms…and 15 named storms.

Maximum sustained winds are 50 mph

According to the NHC:

Tropical Storm Ophelia  Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM AST Tue Oct 10 2017

Ophelia has lost some of its outer banding this evening, but a well-defined band of convection remains over the southeastern and southern portion of the circulation. A 2322 UTC ASCAT overpass again suggests that the winds are not as strong what is indicated by the Dvorak satellite estimates. The highest winds in the ASCAT pass were 35 knot, but with some under sampling consideration the initial intensity is set to 45 knot.

Ophelia is moving southeastward or 140/5 knot. The cyclone should continue to move southeastward or east-southeastward during the next 24 hours while it remains embedded within a mid- to upper-level trough. After that time, Ophelia is forecast to turn eastward, then northeastward and begin to accelerate by day 3 ahead of a deepening mid-latitude trough over the north-central Atlantic. The latest run of the GFS shifted eastward and is very similar to the 12Z ECMWF, and the previous NHC track forecast. These typically reliable models are along the southern edge of the track envelope, and the NHC forecast remains there as well.

The cyclone is expected to be within a low shear environment and over marginally warm sea surface temperatures during the next 2 to 3 days. These conditions favor strengthening and the NHC forecast again calls for Ophelia to become a hurricane in about 36 hours, although the forecast wind speed through 24 hours is slightly less than the previous advisory due to the lower initial intensity. Later in the period, baroclinic dynamics are expected to keep Ophelia a strong cyclone over the northeastern Atlantic through day 5 when the system is forecast to become fully extratropical.

 

Atlantic Ocean

Tropical cyclone 17L (Ophelia)

NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

 

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