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Oct
08
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Cyclone 17L (Ophelia) is located about 860 miles west-southwest of the Azores

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, and TAOS model…for TC 17L

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/17L/imagery/vis0-lalo.gif

Tropical Storm Ophelia is now active over the open Atlantic

Here’s a satellite view, with the looping version…along with what the computer models are showing

According to the NHC:

Tropical Storm Ophelia  Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM AST Mon Oct 9 2017

The convective pattern of the small cyclone has continued to improve since the previous advisory, with some thunderstorm activity having developed near or over the center, along with an increase in curved banding features in the eastern semicircle. The Dvorak intensity estimate at 1200Z from TAFB was T2.0/30 kt, but given the aforementioned improvement in the curved-band structure since that time, the initial intensity is increased to 35 kt. This makes Ophelia the fifteenth named storm of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season.

The initial motion estimate is 030/04 kt. The steering flow surrounding Ophelia is expected to continue to be weak for the next day or so while the cyclone remains entangled with a weak upper-level low located just to its north and northwest. As a result, only a slow drift toward the northeast and and east is forecast. By 36 h, increased mid-level ridging to the northwest of Ophelia should induce a motion toward the east-southeast and southeast through 72 h, after which a broad mid-latitude trough is expected to gradually accelerate the cyclone toward the northeast at a forward speed of near 10 kt. The official forecast remains down the middle of the guidance envelope, in close agreement with the previous forecast track, and the HCCA and TVCX consensus models. Ophelia should remain far away from land for the next 5 days.

Although Ophelia is forecast to remain over marginally warm SSTs of 26.5-27 deg C, much colder-than-normal temperatures aloft should offset the relatively cool ocean temperatures and produce sufficient instability to generate moderate to strong convection for the next 120 h. The GFS-based SHIPS model is currently assessing 25 kt of westerly vertical wind shear, which obviously isn’t occuring based on the recent development of anticyclonic outflow over the low-level center and across most of Ophelia’s circulation. In contrast, the UW-CIMSS shear analyses indicate lower shear values near 15 kt. However, both shear assessments are likely too high given the large domains that they use to calculate environmental wind shear. Based on recent trends noted in water vapor imagery showing the shear decreasing, along with the overall favorable upper-level wind fields forecast by the GFS and ECMWF, especially after 36 hours, slow but steady strengthening is expected for the next 5 days, with only occasional intrusions of dry mid-level air being the primary inhibiting factor to the intensification process. The official intensity forecast is close to the NOAA HCCA consensus model, is about midway between the more aggressive IVCN consensus model that makes Ophelia a hurricane in about 72 h, and the more conservative statistical SHIPS and LGEM models. However, even the SHIPS and LGEM models have increased their peak intensity forecasts by at least 15 kt since the previous advisory.

 

 

P0st-Tropical Cyclone 16L (Nate) remains over land…bringing heavy rains and gusty winds

Here’s a graphic showing the rainfall forecast through Tuesday

Here’s a satellite view, with the looping version…along with what the computer models are showing

Former 16L has maximum sustained winds near 15 mph

According to the NHC:

Tropical Depression 16L Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 9 2017

NATE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH NATE CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS THIS MORNING AS TROPIOCAL MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE NORTHEAST. NATE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING FURTHER AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD TODAY THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

RAINFALL: NATE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN FROM NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY. RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

 

Atlantic Ocean

Tropical cyclone 17L (Ophelia)

NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

Tropical cyclone 16L (Nate) Last Advisory

NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

 

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