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Oct
07
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Cyclone 16L (Nate) is located about 10 miles southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/16L/imagery/vis0-lalo.gif

Hurricane 16L (Nate) will make landfall along the northern Gulf Coast…as a Category 1 hurricane

Here’s a graphic showing the rainfall forecast through Tuesday

Here’s a satellite view, with the looping version…along with what the computer models are showing

Here’s an image that shows where TC 16L is, along with other current information / an image showing the current Watches and Warnings

Here’s a near real time wind profile of TC 16L

TS 16L has maximum sustained winds near 85 mph

According to the NHC:

Tropical Storm 16L Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
400 PM CDT Sat Oct 7 2017

Nate is sending mixed signals on its organization this afternoon. On one side, the hurricane has a ragged central dense overcast with a good complex of outer bands in the northeastern semicircle, and there are hints of an eye trying to form. On the other side, the cloud tops near the center have warmed significantly during the past several hours, and there are signs that vertical shear is starting to affect the storm. In addition, the eye only has deep convection in the eastern semicircle in land-based radar data. The last reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicated that the central pressure was near 981 mb, with flight-level and SFMR winds supporting an intensity of 80 kt. A new aircraft is just starting its investigation of the hurricane.

Between the developing shear and the imminent landfall, Nate is about out of time to strengthen. While not explicitly shown in the intensity forecast, there could still be some intensification to category 2 status in the next few hours. After landfall, Nate should weaken rapidly as it moves through the eastern United States. The cyclone is forecast to become a remnant low by 48 h, extratropical near the 72 hr point, and dissipate completely by 96 h.

The initial motion is now 345/20. Nate is moving around the western end of a low- to mid-level ridge over Florida and the western Atlantic, and the cyclone is expected to enter the mid- latitude westerlies during the next 12-24 h. This should cause Nate to turn northward in the next several hours, then turn northeastward after 12-24 h. The new forecast track is similar in both direction and speed to the previous track and lies near the center of a tightly clustered set of guidance.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Nate is expected to bring life-threatening storm surge flooding near and well east of where the center makes landfall, and a storm surge warning is in effect from Grand Isle, Louisiana, to the Okaloosa/Walton county line in Florida. Maximum flooding of 7 to 11 feet above ground level is expected in portions of southeastern Louisiana and along the Mississippi coast.

2. Nate will bring hurricane conditions to portions of the northern Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Alabama, where a hurricane warning is in effect. The strongest winds are expected to occur primarily to the east of the track of the center.

3. Nate’s fast forward speed after landfall will bring tropical-storm-force winds well inland across portions of the southeastern U.S. Tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect for portions of southeastern Mississippi, much of Alabama, and western Georgia.

4. Nate will bring heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated totals of 10 inches east of the Mississippi River from the central Gulf Coast into the Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians through Monday, resulting in the potential for flash flooding in these areas.

5. Moisture from Nate interacting with a frontal zone will also bring 2 to 5 inches of rain with isolated totals of 7 inches across the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians Sunday and Monday, which will increase the risk for flash flooding across these locations.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

WIND: Along the northern Gulf Coast, hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in the next few hours, with tropical storm conditions currently spreading onshore. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area tonight and Sunday morning. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area tonight.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Mississippi/Alabama border…7 to 11 ft Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border, including Mobile Bay…6 to 9 ft Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line…4 to 6 ft Grand Isle, Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi River…2 to 4 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass, Florida…2 to 3 ft Indian Pass to Crystal River, Florida…1 to 3 ft Morgan City, Louisiana to Grand Isle…1 to 2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Monday: Western Cuba: 2 to 4 inches, max 6 inches. East of the Mississippi River from the central Gulf Coast into the Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians: 3 to 6 inches, max 10 inches. Across the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians: 2 to 5 inches, max 7 inches.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across parts of Alabama, the western Florida Panhandle, western Georgia, and southern Mississippi through Sunday afternoon.

SURF: Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

 

Atlantic Ocean

1.) A stationary low pressure system located about 700 miles southwest of the Azores is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for the development of a tropical or subtropical cyclone for the next day or so while the system drifts toward the southwest or south. After that time, strong upper-level winds are expected to limit further development.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

Tropical cyclone 16L (Ramon)

NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

 

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