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Oct
06
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Cyclone 16L (Nate) is located about 245 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/16L/imagery/vis0-lalo.gif

Hurricane 16L (Nate) is strengthening over the central Gulf of Mexico…hurricane and storm surge watches remain active over portions of the U.S. Gulf coast

The storm will make landfall along the northern Gulf Coast tonight…and could be as a low end Category 1 hurricane.

Nate will bring a large area of heavy rain from the Gulf Coast to the Appalachians…and possibly parts of the Northeast.

Here’s a graphic showing the rainfall forecast through Tuesday

Here’s a satellite view, with the looping version…along with what the computer models are showing

Here’s an image that shows where TC 16L is, along with other current information / an image showing the current Watches and Warnings

Here’s a near real time wind profile of TC 16L

TS 16L has maximum sustained winds near 85 mph

According to the NHC:

Tropical Storm 16L Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
400 AM CDT Sat Oct 7 2017

An Air Force reconnaissance plane investigated Nate a couple of hours ago and measured peak flight-level winds of 89 kt at 850 mb to the east of the center. No hurricane force winds were reported west of the center. The SFMR winds from that mission yielded an initial intensity of 70 kt. Since the plane left, the satellite presentation has changed little, so the winds remains with the same value in this advisory. Another reconnaissance plane is currently approaching Nate.

The outflow is well established suggesting that the shear is low, while the atmospheric conditions favor some additional strengthening. On this basis, the NHC forecast calls for some slight increase in the winds, however, the SHIPS/LGEM models forecast Nate to be a little bit stronger just before landfall. After landfall, weakening is anticipated and Nate is forecast to dissipate in 96 hours or sooner.

Nate is moving rapidly toward the north-northwest at about 19 kt. The hurricane is being steered by the flow between a large cyclonic gyre over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and a developing mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic. This pattern should continue to force Nate on a general north-northwest fast track for the next 24 hours. After that time, the hurricane will recurve northeastward with additional increase in forward speed as it encounters the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC track forecast has not changed much from the previous one and is and is very close the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA. This model has been very skillful this season.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Life-threatening storm surge flooding is likely along portions of the northern Gulf Coast, and a storm surge warning is in effect from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Okaloosa/Walton county line in Florida. Residents in these areas should heed any evacuation instructions given by local officials.

2. A hurricane warning is in effect for portions of the northern Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Alabama, and preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in these areas.

3. Nate will bring heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated totals of 10 inches east of the Mississippi River from the central Gulf Coast into the Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians through Monday, resulting in the potential for flash flooding in these areas.

4. Moisture from Nate interacting with a frontal zone will also bring 2 to 4 inches with isolated totals of 6 inches across the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians Sunday into Monday, which will also increase the risk for flash flooding across these locations.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

WIND: Along the northern Gulf Coast, hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin by this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area tonight and tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area tonight and Sunday.

STORM SURGE: In the United States, the combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Morgan City, Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi River…4 to 6 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Alabama/Florida border…5 to 9 ft Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line…4 to 6 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass, Florida…2 to 4 ft Indian Pass to Crystal River, Florida…1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Monday:

Eastern Yucatan and western Cuba: 2 to 4 inches, max 6 inches. Eastern Belize and the Cayman Islands: 1 to 3 inches.

East of the Mississippi River from the central Gulf Coast into the Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians: 3 to 6 inches, max 10 inches.

Across the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians: 2 to 4 inches, max 6 inches.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes will be possible beginning later today over parts of the central Gulf Coast region.

SURF: Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the western Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

 

 

Atlantic Ocean

1.) A non-tropical area of low pressure is located about 700 miles southwest of the Azores. This system is beginning to acquire subtropical characteristics, and environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for the development of a tropical or subtropical cyclone during the next day or so while the low drifts toward the southwest. Thereafter, the atmosphere is expected to become hostile for further development.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

Tropical cyclone 16L (Ramon)

NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

 

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