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Oct
05
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Cyclone 16L (Nate) is located about 355 miles south-southeast of Cozumel, Mexico

Tropical Storm 16L (Nate) will be moving offshore from the east coast of Honduras…hurricane and storm surge watches have been issued over portions of the U.S. Gulf coast

The main impacts will include bands of locally heavy rain, rising high surf, and strong wind gusts.

It looks likely that the system will make landfall along the northern Gulf Coast Sunday morning. The models suggest this landfall could be as a Category 1 hurricane.

All interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Florida should monitor the progress of Nate closely.

Here’s a satellite view, with the looping version…along with what the computer models are showing

Here’s an image that shows where TS 16L is, along with other current information / an image showing the current Watches and Warnings

Here’s a near real time wind profile of TS 16L

TS 16L has maximum sustained winds near 40 mph

According to the NHC:

Tropical Storm 16L Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM EDT Thur Oct 5 2017

Nate’s center has been moving northwestward across eastern Honduras, but it is just about to reach the waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Despite moving over land for the past 12-15 hours, the cyclone appears to have a relatively intact and well-defined inner core. Deep convection has actually been increasing over the center, and recent 85-GHz microwave data showed at least some form of a convective ring. Given these signs, the maximum winds are being held at 35 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft will be investigating Nate during the next several hours to get a better handle on the storm’s intensity and structure.

Nate has been moving northwestward while crossing Nicaragua and Honduras, and the initial motion estimate is 325/10 kt. The storm is currently embedded within a broad Central American gyre, and it should swing north-northwestward on the east side of this gyre during the next 36 hours. After 36 hours, Nate should turn northward and then northeastward along the western periphery of a mid-tropospheric high centered off the southeastern U.S. coastline. Compared to yesterday at this time, the track models have come into much better agreement, and all the reliable models take Nate’s center across the northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula in 24 hours and then across the U.S. central Gulf coast between 48 and 60 hours. Because of this tight clustering, there are no notable cross-track changes in the NHC forecast. Speed-wise, however, the updated official forecast is a bit faster than the previous one and has caught up to the various consensus aids.

Due to low shear and very high oceanic heat content in the northwestern Caribbean Sea, Nate should at least steadily strengthen once it moves offshore, especially since it appears to have a well-defined inner core. Rapid intensification is still not out of the question, and Nate could be near hurricane intensity by the time it reaches the Yucatan coast in about 24 hours. Land interaction with the Yucatan peninsula could cause a brief hiatus in the strengthening trend, but conditions should be conducive for additional intensification while Nate is over the Gulf of Mexico. Overall, the intensity models have not changed much on this cycle, and the NHC forecast still calls for a 48-hour intensity of 70 kt, which is at the upper end of the guidance between HWRF and HCCA. As mentioned before, Nate could strengthen further in the time between the 48-hour position and when it crosses the U.S. Gulf coast.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall is the main threat from Nate in portions of Central America, with life-threatening flash flooding and mud slides possible in portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, Costa Rica, Panama, and Belize through Friday night.

2. Nate could be near hurricane intensity when it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula late Friday, bringing direct impacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall. A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch are in effect for a portion of this area, and life-threatening flash flooding is also possible.

3. Nate is forecast to reach the northern Gulf Coast this weekend as a hurricane, and the threat of direct impacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall is increasing from Louisiana through the western Florida Panhandle. Hurricane and tropical storm watches, as well as a storm surge watch, have been issued for a portion of the northern Gulf Coast, and residents in these areas should monitor the progress of Nate, heeding any advice given by local officials.

 

Atlantic Ocean

1.) An area of low pressure is forecast to form on a frontal boundary in a few days about 900 miles southwest of the Azores. This low could acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics early next week while it remains nearly stationary over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

Tropical cyclone 16L (Ramon)

NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

1.) A non-tropical area of low pressure is in the Florida Straits centered about 50 miles southwest of Key West. This low is interacting with an upper-level low to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms across southern Florida, the northwestern Bahamas, central Cuba, and the adjacent Atlantic waters. Upper-level winds are forecast to be unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation while the system moves west-northwestward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or two. However, locally heavy rainfall, some coastal flooding, and strong gusty winds, especially in squalls, are likely over portions of the Bahamas and Florida during the next couple of days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…near 0 percent

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

 

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