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Sep
27
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Cyclone 15L (Maria) is located about 275 miles east-northeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina

Tropical Cyclone 14L (Lee) is located about 445 miles east of Bermuda

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/14L/imagery/ir0-lalo.gif

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/14L/imagery/rb-animated.gif

Hurricane 14L (Lee) is a small system in the Central Atlantic…maintaining strength at Category 2

Far to the east of Maria is Hurricane Lee, which has became the 5th major hurricane in the Atlantic this year.

Lee is no threat to land.

Here’s a satellite view, with the looping version…along with what the computer models are showing

Here’s a near real time wind profile of Hurricane Lee…as it remains away from land

Hurricane Lee has maximum sustained winds near 110 mph

According to the NHC:

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM AST Thur Sep 28 2017

Although Lee remains a powerful hurricane, the cloud pattern appears to be gradually losing some organization. The eye has become ragged at times, and the convective pattern is now more asymmetric with convection becoming limited over the northwestern quadrant. The initial wind speed is held at 95 kt, based on an average of the Dvorak CI-numbers from TAFB/SAB and CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin, but this could be a little generous.

Lee is headed toward an environment of strong wind shear and cooler waters. These more hostile conditions should cause the system to steadily weaken during the next couple of days, and Lee will likely fall below hurricane strength in 36 to 48 hours. The system is expected to lose its tropical characteristics in a little more than 2 days when it will be over SSTs below 20 deg C and in an environment of about 30 kt of westerly shear. Dissipation is now predicted to occur by day 3, in agreement with the latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF models. The NHC intensity forecast is an update of the previous one, and it remains in good agreement with the ICON and HCCA consensus aids.

Lee has turned to the north at 8 kt on the western side of a mid-level ridge. The hurricane is forecast to begin accelerating to the northeast later today when it becomes embedded in fast mid-latitude flow, and it should continue moving in that direction until it dissipates. The models are tightly clustered, and only minor changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast.

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/15L/imagery/vis0-lalo.gif

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/15L/imagery/rb-animated.gif

Tropical Storm 15L (Maria) remains offshoremoving slowly away from the coast

The National Hurricane Center said the large storm will be moving away from the United States east coast, while still bringing some tropical storm conditions to the North Carolina Coast.

Maria’s winds have increased to 7o mph…although these winds are mostly confined to areas east of the center.

Storm surge flooding was also occurring along parts of the Outer Banks, forecasters said.

The remnants of Maria are expected to move across Britain around next Monday…and could bring very heavy rain and very strong to gale force winds with it.

Here’s a near real time wind profile of Hurricane Maria…as it continues spinning offshore from the east coast of the United States

Here’s what the computer models are showing

Long term animated image for Hurricane Maria

A graphic showing where Hurricane Maria is…with additional information

A graphic showing Maria’s Watches and Warnings

A graphic showing Maria’s Storm Surge Forecast

A graphic showing the rainfall forecast through Friday

Hurricane Maria has maximum sustained winds near 70 mph

According to the NHC:

Hurricane Maria Discussion     Number 49
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM EDT Thur Sep 28 2017

Maria’s satellite presentation has not changed much during the past six hours, with 15-20 kt of northwesterly shear continuing to displace much of the deep convection to the east of the center. Despite the discrepancy between aircraft observations and Dvorak estimates noted yesterday, a pair of ASCAT passes from a few hours ago showed maximum winds in the 50-55 kt range. Even with the assumption that the resolution of the ASCAT data may not have revealed the highest winds, an analysis suggests that Maria has weakened back to a 60-kt tropical storm. Little change in intensity is anticipated during the next two days while Maria moves over sea surface temperatures of 26-27 degrees Celsius, and while vertical shear decreases during the next 24 hours. After 48 hours, a marked jump in shear and much colder waters should induce more weakening, and model guidance indicates that Maria should complete extratropical transition by day 3. The extratropical low should then be absorbed by a larger system over the northeastern Atlantic by day 4. This scenario is in agreement with guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.

Maria is becoming embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies and is now moving toward the east-northeast, or 060/7 kt. The cyclone is expected to turn eastward very soon, but then turn back toward the east-northeast in 36 hours as a positively tilted trough moves off the New England and Atlantic Canada coasts. The speed differences among the track models are not as significant as they were yesterday, although the updated NHC track forecast was nudged southward for much of the forecast period to follow an overall modest shift in the guidance envelope.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting much of the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, and Bermuda. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

 

Atlantic Ocean

Tropical cyclone 15L (Maria) 

NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Tropical cyclone 14L (Lee) 

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

An area of disturbed weather associated with a trough of low pressure is located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. This system is forecast to move slowly north-northwestward across Cuba and the Straits of Florida during the next day or so. Some development of this system is possible when it moves near the Florida peninsula or the northwestern Bahamas on Friday or Saturday before upper-level winds become less favorable early next week. Regardless of development, this system is likely to produce locally heavy rainfall over portions of Cuba, southern Florida, the Florida Keys, and the Bahamas during the next several days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

 

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