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Sep
17
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 20W (Talim) is located about 79 NM north of Misawa, AB, Japan – Final Warning

Tropical Cyclone 15E (Otis) is located about 1170 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California

Tropical Cyclone 17E (Norma) is located about 140 miles southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico

Tropical Storm 20W (Talim) continues across the Japanese Islands

Here’s a satellite image of this system…along with what the computer models are showing

Here’s a looping satellite image of this system

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #38 were 55 knots with gusts of 70 knots

 

Hurricane 15E (Otis) is active in the northeast Pacific…moving westward over the open eastern Pacific (system on the left)

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph with higher gusts (Category 3)

Here’s a satellite image of this system, with the looping version…along with what the computer models are showing

According to the NHC:

Otis's rapid intensification rate has leveled off over the
past few hours, with the small clear eye not quite as distinct as
earlier.  Still, the cloud pattern of the hurricane remains well
organized.  While the 0000 UTC Dvorak estimates had subjective
values near 90 kt, a 6-hourly data-T average was 105 kt.  As a blend
of these data, the initial wind speed is set to 100 kt.  Otis is
moving over marginal SSTs now, so any further intensification is
expected to be slight.  By tomorrow night, a combination of lower
SSTs, drier air and an increase in southerly shear is forecast to
cause a significant weakening of Otis.  Almost all of the guidance
show rapid weakening by early Tuesday, and this is the solution
provided in the new NHC wind speed prediction.  Global models
suggest Otis will lose organized deep convection within about 3
days, so the cyclone is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low at
that time.

Otis is moving faster to the north, now at 7 kt.  The hurricane
should take a sharp westward turn in about 24 hours as it runs
into a building ridge over the eastern Pacific, then turn
west-southwest or southwest under that ridge.  Very little change
was made to the previous forecast, which lies between the model
consensus and the ECMWF model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0300Z 18.0N 127.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  18/1200Z 18.9N 127.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  19/0000Z 19.4N 127.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  19/1200Z 19.4N 128.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  20/0000Z 19.0N 129.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  21/0000Z 17.6N 131.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  22/0000Z 16.1N 134.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  23/0000Z 14.8N 137.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW


Tropical Storm 17E (Norma)
remains active in the northeast Pacific…moving northwestward over the eastern Pacific (near Baja California)

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts.

Here’s a satellite image of this system, with the looping version…along with what the computer models are showing

According to the NHC:

The satellite appearance of Norma hasn't changed much since the
last advisory, with a large curved band in the northwestern
quadrant of the storm.  Dvorak estimates support keeping the wind
speed 45 kt for this advisory.  Norma is forecast to gradually
weaken starting Monday since it will be moving over cooler SSTs and
into a drier, more stable airmass.  No change was made to the
previous forecast as the guidance is in very good agreement on this
scenario.

Norma is now moving west-northwestward, turning slightly to the
left since the last advisory while it moves around a deep-layer
ridge over northwestern Mexico.  In about 3 days, the ridge weakens
somewhat, which should allow the cyclone, or its remnants, to turn
northwestward then northward.  Guidance has continued to shift
westward, and the official forecast is again moved in that
direction.  Because of the more offshore track, the chances of
seeing tropical-storm-force winds over land are quite low, and the
government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0300Z 21.4N 111.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  18/1200Z 21.6N 112.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  19/0000Z 21.8N 113.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  19/1200Z 22.1N 113.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  20/0000Z 22.5N 114.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  21/0000Z 23.7N 115.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  22/0000Z 24.5N 115.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Norma are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur and will continue
into late Monday or Tuesday.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Eastern North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 15E (Otis)

NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Tropical Cyclone 17E (Norma)

NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

Tropical cyclone 20W (Tamil) Final Warning

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

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