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Sep
17
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Cyclone 12L (Jose) is located about 395 miles west of Bermuda

Tropical Cyclone 14L (Lee) is located about 980 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands

Tropical Cyclone 15L Maria is located about 100 miles northeast of  Barbados

Hurricane Jose remains active over the Atlantic Ocean away from land…peaking in strength now

Here’s a closer satellite view, with the looping version…along with what the computer models are showing

Here’s a graphic showing where Jose is…with additional information

Hurricane Jose has maximum sustained winds near 90 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Large swells spreading as far north as coastal New England.

Here’s a graphic map showing wave heights in the area.

According to the NHC:

Jose's cloud pattern has transformed from one with a tight inner
core to one with a large convective band over the northern
semicircle that wraps around the center.  This change in structure
can be seen in recent microwave imagery and aircraft data that show
an expansion of the radius of maximum winds.  Data from NOAA and Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft still support an initial
wind speed of 80 kt, but the minimum pressure has risen several
millibars since this morning.

Strong southwesterly shear and gradually decreasing sea surface
temperatures along the track of Jose are expected to cause gradual
weakening, however Jose is forecast to maintain hurricane intensity
through 48 hours.  Around that time, Jose is forecast to pass north
of the north wall of the Gulf Stream and over much cooler waters,
which will likely result in an additional decrease in intensity
at 72 h and beyond.  The NHC intensity forecast is in good
agreement with the SHIPS guidance through 72 h, and closer to the
global models at days 4 and 5.

Jose is moving northward at about 8 kt around the western portion
of a mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic.  The track forecast
reasoning is the same as the previous advisory.  Jose should
continue northward during the next day or so, then turn north-
northeastward as a broad mid-latitude trough passes north of the
hurricane.  After the trough passes Jose's longitude in about 72 h,
the cyclone will be left within weak steering currents and is
expected to drift eastward, then southeastward and southward late
in the forecast period.  The NHC track forecast through 72 h is
virtually on top of the previous advisory.  The latest dynamical
model guidance takes Jose a little more westward very late in the
period, and the new NHC track forecast has been shifted to the left
at day 5, close to the latest ECMWF ensemble mean.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. While the center of Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore
of the U.S. coast, the large cyclone could cause some direct impacts
from Delaware northward to New England, and any deviation to the
left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and
magnitude of those impacts.  A tropical storm watch is now in
effect from the Delaware coast to southeastern Massachusetts.
Interests elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from North
Carolina to New England should monitor the progress of Jose
through the next several days.

2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware
to southern New England during the next several days.  Please see
products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.

3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas,
and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause
dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days
in these areas.

4. Jose will produce heavy rain as it passes near southern New
England and the mid-Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Total
accumulations of three to five inches are expected over eastern Long
Island, southern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts,
including Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket.  Based on the current
forecast, the risk of flooding will be limited in scope.  Any
deviation to the left of the forecast track, however, could bring
heavier and more widespread rainfall to southern New England, Long
Island, New York City, and New Jersey.  If this deviation
were to occur, the risk of urban flash flooding and some river
flooding would increase.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0300Z 32.2N  71.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  18/1200Z 33.4N  71.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  19/0000Z 34.9N  71.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  19/1200Z 36.6N  71.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  20/0000Z 38.3N  71.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  21/0000Z 40.2N  68.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  22/0000Z 39.5N  68.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  23/0000Z 38.5N  68.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Tuesday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas,
and much of the U.S. east coast.  These swells are likely to cause
dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several
days in these areas.  For more information, please consult products
from your local weather office.

RAINFALL...Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3
to 5 inches over eastern Long Island, southern Rhode Island, and
southeast Massachusetts, including Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket
through Wednesday.  Jose is also expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches along the Mid Atlantic coast, and
from southeast New York to coastal Maine.  This rainfall could cause
isolated flooding.

Tropical Depression 14L (Lee) remains active over the Atlantic Ocean…away from land (easternmost storm)

Here’s a closer satellite view, with the looping version…along with what the computer models are showing

Tropical Depression Lee has maximum sustained winds near 35 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.

According to the NHC:

Deep convection associated with Lee has waned over the past
several hours as dry air and shear take a toll on the tropical
cyclone.  A recent partial ASCAT pass showed 25 kt winds over the
northwest portion of the circulation, assuming that there are
stronger winds to the northeast of the center, the initial intensity
is held at 30 kt, but this could be generous.  The vertical shear
is forecast to increase to greater than 30 kt during the next 24
hours and it is doubtful that Lee will be able to generate enough
organized deep convection to keep its status as a tropical cyclone
for much longer.  As a result of the shear and nearby dry air,
weakening and degeneration into a remnant low is predicted by Monday
night, if not sooner.  The global models show the circulation
dissipating in 2 to 3 days, and so does the NHC forecast.

Lee has turned west-northwestward or 285/9 kt. A west-northwestward
or northwestward motion should continue until the cyclone
dissipates, and little change to the previous NHC track forecast
was required.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0300Z 13.6N  38.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  18/1200Z 14.1N  39.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  19/0000Z 15.2N  41.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  19/1200Z 16.3N  42.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  20/0000Z 17.7N  44.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

Hurricane 15L Maria is now threatening the Caribbean Islands, and possibly the Bahamas with time…as a major Category 3 storm

Here’s a satellite view, with the looping version…along with what the computer models are showing

Hurricane Maria has maximum sustained winds near 85 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.

According to the NHC:

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft received
just after the previous advisory indicated that Maria's maximum
sustained winds had increased to 70 kt.  Since that time, a large
central dense overcast with cloud tops colder than -80C has formed,
and data from the radar on Martinique shows 60-70 percent of an
eyewall is present under the overcast.  Satellite intensity
estimates have increased to 75 kt, and that is the initial
intensity.

The initial motion is 290/11.  The subtropical ridge to the north
is expected to steer Maria generally west-northwestward for the
next 72 h, with some decrease in the forward speed.  After that
time, the guidance suggests that the hurricane should turn more
toward the northwest as it approaches the western end of the ridge.
The track guidance remains tightly clustered, and the new forecast
track, which is similar to the previous track, is in best overall
agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus and ECMWF models.

Analyses from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin suggest that
Maria is currently experiencing light to moderate southwesterly
shear.  However, all indications are that the shear should diminish
during the next 24-48 h, which should allow steady to rapid
strengthening.  The Rapid Intensification Index of the SHIPS model
forecast better than a 50 percent chance of 25-30 kt of
strengthening during the next 24 h, and about a 35 percent chance
of 55 kt of strengthening during the next 48 h.  Based on this, the
intensity forecast has been increased to show Maria becoming a
major hurricane in 24 h and a category 4 hurricane in 48 h.  Late in
the forecast period, a combination of land interaction and
increasing shear should cause some weakening.  The new intensity
forecast is near the upper edge of the guidance in best overall
agreement with the HWRF.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria continues to strengthen and is expected to be at major
hurricane intensity when it affects portions of the Leeward Islands
over the next few days, bringing dangerous wind, storm surge and
rainfall hazards.  Hurricane and tropical storm warnings have been
issued for portions of the Leeward Islands, and these warnings will
likely be extended northward and westward on Monday.

2. Maria is likely to affect the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico by mid week as a dangerous major hurricane.  Hurricane
watches have been issued for the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and
could be extended to Puerto Rico early Monday.  Interests in these
areas should monitor the progress of Maria and follow any advice
given by local officials.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0300Z 14.2N  58.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  18/1200Z 14.7N  59.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  19/0000Z 15.4N  61.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  19/1200Z 16.2N  62.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  20/0000Z 16.9N  63.9W  115 KT 130 MPH
 72H  21/0000Z 18.5N  67.0W  120 KT 140 MPH...OVER PUERTO RICO
 96H  22/0000Z 20.0N  69.5W  115 KT 130 MPH...OVER WATER
120H  23/0000Z 22.0N  71.5W  105 KT 120 MPH 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are first expected within portions of
the Leeward Islands by late Monday, with tropical storm conditions
beginning during the day on Monday.  Hurricane conditions are
possible within the hurricane watch area by Tuesday, with tropical
storm conditions possible Monday night.  Tropical storm conditions
are possible in the tropical storm watch area later tonight through
Monday night.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and
destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 5 to 7 feet
above normal tide levels near where the center of Maria moves
across the Leeward Islands.

RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches across the
central and southern Leeward Islands, including Puerto Rico and the
U.S. and British Virgin Islands, through Wednesday night.  Maria is
also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches
with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches over the remaining
northern Leeward Islands from Barbuda to Anguilla, as well as the
Windward Islands and Barbados.  Rainfall on all of these islands
could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

SURF:  Swells generated by Maria are affecting the Lesser Antilles.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  
 

Atlantic Ocean

Tropical cyclone 12L (Jose)

NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Tropical cyclone 14L (Lee)

NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Tropical cyclone 15L (Maria) 

NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

 

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