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Sep
16
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 20W (Talim) is located about 115 NM east of Iwakuni, Japan

Tropical Cyclone 15E (Otis) is located about 1230 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California

Tropical Cyclone 17E (Norma) is located about 145 miles south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico

 

Tropical Storm 20W (Talim) continues moving towards the Japanese Islands

Here’s a satellite image of this system…along with what the computer models are showing

Here’s a looping satellite image of this system

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #35 were 55 knots with gusts of 70 knots

 

Tropical Storm 15E (Otis) is active in the northeast Pacific…moving westward over the open eastern Pacific (system on the left)

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts.

Here’s a satellite image of this system, with the looping version…along with what the computer models are showing

According to the NHC:

Otis continues to gradually strengthen.  Satellite images show hints
of an eye starting to form, and convection just outside the
center has been increasing during the past few hours.  A blend of
the TAFB Dvorak classification and ADT values from CIMSS at the
University of Wisconsin supports increasing the winds to 50 kt,
though this could be conservative based on the current structure.

Otis has a little more time to strengthen since the storm is
expected to remain in an environment of low wind shear and over 27
deg C waters.  After 24 hours, however, lower SSTs, drier air, and
an increase in wind shear should cause weakening.  Even though SSTs
warm along the expected path by the end of the forecast period, the
models continue to show Otis decaying due to unfavorable atmospheric
conditions.  The cyclone is forecast to become a remnant low by day
4 based on the global models, but this is a low confidence
prediction at this time.

The tropical storm has now turned to the north, as expected, at a
very slow forward speed.  This slow north to north-northwest motion
is expected during the next 36 hours while Otis moves on the west
side of a weak mid-level ridge.  Thereafter, a faster west
and west-southwest motion is expected when the weakening cyclone
becomes more influenced by the low-level tradewind flow.  Only
minor changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast, and this
one lies close to the various consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/1500Z 16.3N 127.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  18/0000Z 17.1N 127.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  18/1200Z 18.0N 127.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  19/0000Z 18.8N 127.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  19/1200Z 18.9N 128.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  20/1200Z 18.1N 130.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  21/1200Z 17.0N 133.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  22/1200Z 15.7N 136.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW


Tropical Storm 17E (Norma)
remains active in the northeast Pacific…moving northwestward over the eastern Pacific (near Mexico)

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph with higher gusts.

Here’s a satellite image of this system, with the looping version…along with what the computer models are showing

According to the NHC:

Deep convection associated with Norma is restricted to a curved
band to the north and the west of the center.  Dvorak
classifications continue to fall and a blend of the SAB/TAFB
numbers indicates initial maximum winds of 40 kt, consistent with
some weakening since the overnight ASCAT pass.

Norma should continue to decay due to the combination of dry air,
cooler SSTs, and a convergent upper-troposphere.  Transition to a
remnant low is expected in about three days.  The official
intensity forecast is based upon the IVCN consensus technique and
is slightly lower than the previous advisory.

Norma is moving north-northwestward at about 4 kt, steered by a
deep-layer ridge over the Gulf of Mexico.  The tropical storm
should turn toward the northwest or west-northwest at about the
same rate of forward speed during the next couple of days.  By days
3 to 5, Norma's remnant low should meander west of the southern tip
of Baja California.  The official track forecast is based upon a
blend of the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach and the ECMWF - the
best performing model for this system.  The new prediction is
slightly west of the previous advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/1500Z 20.9N 110.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  18/0000Z 21.4N 110.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  18/1200Z 21.7N 111.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  19/0000Z 22.0N 112.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  19/1200Z 22.2N 113.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 72H  20/1200Z 22.8N 114.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  21/1200Z 23.5N 114.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  22/1200Z 24.0N 114.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
 
RAINFALL:  Norma is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 1 to 2 inches over the southern portion of the Mexican state of
Baja California Sur, with isolated maximum amounts up to 4 inches.
These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash floods.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by this afternoon.  Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area tonight or early
Monday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Norma are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur and will continue
into early next week.  These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions.

 

Eastern North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 15E (Otis)

NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Tropical Cyclone 17E (Norma)

NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

Tropical cyclone 20W (Tamil) 

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

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