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Sep
16
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Cyclone 12L (Jose) is located about 435 miles west-southwest of Bermuda

Tropical Cyclone 14L (Lee) is located about 790 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands

Tropical Cyclone 15L Maria is located about 410 miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles

 

Hurricane Jose remains active over the Atlantic Ocean away from land…with a bit more strengthening likely

Here’s a closer satellite view, with the looping version…along with what the computer models are showing

Here’s a graphic showing where Jose is…with additional information

Hurricane Jose has maximum sustained winds near 80 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Large swells should reach the Eastern Seaboard, spreading as far north as coastal New England. Waves may reach the coastlines north of the Georgia and South Carolina later this weekend.

Here’s a graphic map showing wave heights in the area.

According to the NHC:

The satellite presentation of Jose continues to reveal little
change in the overall cloud structure since yesterday afternoon.
The 25-30 kt of westerly shear is inhibiting any further development
of the inner core.  Cloud tops have warmed near the center and the
cyclone appears to be tilted toward the northeast with height
in earlier microwave images.  Dvorak satellite intensity estimates
remain unchanged from the last advisory, and the initial
intensity is held at 70 kt.  Due to the expected shear persisting
through the entire forecast period, the statistical and dynamical
intensity guidance no longer indicate any hint of strengthening,
even in the short term.  Accordingly, The NHC forecast reflects
little change in strength through the 48 hour period, then
shows gradual weakening through 5 days.

The initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 360/7 kt.  The
cyclone is expected to continue on this northward track, along the
western periphery of the Bermuda high, through 48 hours.
Afterward, Jose should gradually turn north-northeastward to
northeastward on days 3 and 4.  Near the end of the forecast
period, Jose is forecast to slowly turn eastward within the
mid-latitude, mid-level westerly flow associated with shortwave
trough moving over the Canadian Maritimes.  The official forecast
has been adjusted slightly to the west, closer to the HFIP
Corrected Consensus, and near a blend of the UKMET, and ECMWF which
have also shifted a bit westward.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The center of Jose is forecast to pass well east of the North
Carolina coast on Monday, and tropical-storm-force winds are
currently expected to remain offshore of the North Carolina Outer
Banks. However, an additional increase in the size of the storm or a
westward adjustment in the track forecast could bring tropical storm
conditions closer to the Outer Banks, and interests there should
monitor the progress of Jose through Monday.

2. While Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore of the U.S.
coast from Virginia northward to New England, the large cyclone
could cause some direct impacts to these areas and any deviation to
the left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and
magnitude of those impacts.  Interests along the U.S. east coast
from Virginia to New England should monitor the progress of Jose
through the next several days.

3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the
northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and much of the U.S.
east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip
current conditions for the next several days in these areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0900Z 30.0N  71.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  17/1800Z 31.0N  71.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  18/0600Z 32.5N  71.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  18/1800Z 34.0N  71.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  19/0600Z 35.6N  71.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  20/0600Z 38.6N  70.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  21/0600Z 40.0N  67.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  22/0600Z 39.8N  64.8W   45 KT  50 MPH

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

SURF:  Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas,
the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and much of the
U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and
rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas.

Tropical Storm 14L (Lee) remains active over the Atlantic Ocean…away from land (easternmost storm)

Here’s a closer satellite view, with the looping version…along with what the computer models are showing

According to the NHC:

Lee remains sheared this morning, with the center of circulation
just beneath the northern edge of the cloud mass.  Consequently, the
initial intensity is held at 35 kt and agrees with the subjective
Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.  The cyclone is
forecast to remain in an upper wind environment of strong
west-northwesterly shear through the forecast period.  The global
and statistical models all show no intensification of Lee through 36
hours or so, followed by a gradual weakening trend through day 5.
In fact, the GFS and ECMWF show dissipation in less than 4 days.
Only the HWRF hurricane model indicates modest strengthening around
the 48 hour period.  The official forecast is similar to the
previous package and reflects Lee degenerating into a remnant low in
4 days.

The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 280/6 kt.  The
cyclone is currently moving within the easterly mid-level flow
produced by a subtropical ridge anchored to the north.  This ridge
is forecast to erode in 36 hours, allowing Lee to gradually turn
west-northwestward and continue tracking in this fashion through 5
days.  A slight adjustment to the right of the previous advisory was
made to lie more closely to the HCCA technique and a blend of the
ECMWF and GFS global models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0900Z 13.0N  35.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  17/1800Z 13.1N  36.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  18/0600Z 13.4N  37.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  18/1800Z 14.2N  39.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  19/0600Z 15.0N  41.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  20/0600Z 17.1N  44.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  21/0600Z 18.9N  48.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  22/0600Z 20.3N  52.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

Tropical Storm 15L Maria is now active over the Atlantic Ocean…away from land (westernmost storm)

Here’s a satellite view, with the looping version…along with what the computer models are showing

According to the NHC:

Maria's cloud pattern is becoming better organized with developing
convective banding features and a gradually expanding CDO.
Upper-level outflow is only slightly restricted over the southern
portion of the circulation.   The current intensity is set at 55
kt, in agreement with the latest Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and
SAB.  The environment should be conducive for continued
strengthening for the next several days with low shear, a warm
ocean and a fairly moist mid-tropospheric air mass.  The official
intensity forecast follows the model consensus, but a more rapid
intensification than indicated here is certainly possible over the
next couple of days.

Latest center fixes indicate that the tropical cyclone is now
moving west-northwestward, or 285/13 kt.  A mid-level high pressure
area to the north of Maria is forecast to weaken slightly over the
next several days.  This should result in a continued
west-northwestward motion with a slowing of forward speed.  The
official track forecast is a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF
predictions, and lies on the left side of the guidance envelope.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria is expected to strengthen and affect portions of the
Leeward Islands as a hurricane early next week, bringing dangerous
wind, storm surge and rainfall hazards.  Hurricane or Tropical
Storm Warnings will likely be required for portions of these
islands today.

2. Maria could also affect the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico by mid week as a dangerous major hurricane, and
hurricane watches could be issued for these islands as early as
tonight.  Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of
Maria and follow any advice given by local officials.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0900Z 13.0N  54.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  17/1800Z 13.7N  56.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  18/0600Z 14.5N  58.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  18/1800Z 15.2N  60.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  19/0600Z 15.8N  61.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  20/0600Z 17.0N  64.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 96H  21/0600Z 18.4N  67.0W  100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND
120H  22/0600Z 19.5N  69.5W  105 KT 120 MPH...OVER WATER 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area by Monday night or Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions
possible on Monday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
tropical storm watch area on Monday.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and
destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet
above normal tide levels within the hurricane watch area.

RAINFALL:  Maria is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches across the
central and southern Leeward Islands through Wednesday night.  Maria
is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches in the northern
Leeward Islands and north-central Windward Islands.  This rainfall
could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

SURF:  Swells generated by Maria are expected to begin affecting the
Lesser Antilles by tonight.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

 

Atlantic Ocean

Tropical cyclone 12L (Jose)

NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Tropical cyclone 14L (Lee)

NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Tropical cyclone 15L (Maria) 

NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

 

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