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Sep
15
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Cyclone 12L (Jose) is located about 500 miles southwest of Bermuda

Tropical Cyclone 14L is located about 500 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, and TAOS model for Hurricane Jose…as it remains over the open Atlantic Ocean

Hurricane Jose remains active over the Atlantic Ocean away from land…with further strengthening likely

Here’s a closer satellite view, with the looping version…along with what the computer models are showing

Here’s a graphic showing where Jose is…with additional information

Hurricane Jose has maximum sustained winds near 80 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Jose is finally finishing its loop in the western Atlantic Ocean, well south of Bermuda…and is expected to strengthen back into a hurricane tonight.

Most of the forecast models show Jose moving north and then northeast to the east of both the Bahamas and the U.S. East Coast…avoiding direct land impacts.

Regardless, large swells generated by Jose will continue to affect the Bahamas, Bermuda and the north coasts of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

Starting Saturday, these large swells should reach the Eastern Seaboard, spreading as far north as coastal New England. Waves may reach the coastlines north of the Georgia and South Carolina later this weekend.

Here’s a graphic map showing wave heights in the area.

According to the NHC:

Since the reconnaissance flight earlier this afternoon, convection
within the inner-core of Jose has increased in coverage and
organization.  A banding eye appears to be forming, and a warm spot
is apparent in IR imagery near the center of the cyclone.  Dvorak
classifications at 0000 UTC still supported an intensity of 65 kt,
but given the increase in organization since then, the initial
intensity has been increased to 70 kt.  Additional strengthening is
still expected for at least the next 24 to 36 h.  After that time,
an increase in southwesterly shear and gradually cooling SSTs are
still expected to cap the intensification and eventually cause Jose
to gradually weaken.  The official intensity forecast remains a
little above the model consensus for the first 48 h, and is close
after that.

Jose continues to move toward the northwest, and the initial motion
estimate is 305/8 kt.  The main source of uncertainty in the track
forecast is at days 4 and 5, since the global models disagree on the
speed at which Jose will move northward along the western edge of
the subtropical ridge.  The GFS continues to show a faster movement,
which allows Jose to pass very close to the U.S. east coast before
an approaching trough forces the cyclone to turn more toward the
northeast.  On the other hand, the ECMWF shows a slower track, so
the trough steers the hurricane farther east.  The NHC forecast has
not been changed substantially and is still just a touch slower than
the model consensus, out of respect to the ECMWF.  When the 00Z
ECMWF and UKMET models become available tonight, it could shed more
light on the future speed of the hurricane.  It is still important
to note that the average NHC track errors at days 4 and 5 are about
175 and 225 miles, respectively, and this error could be in the
speed of the hurricane (along track error).

While the official track forecast keeps the center of Jose offshore
for the next few days, all of the global models show the hurricane
becoming rather large by late this weekend as it moves to the east
of North Carolina.  For that reason, a tropical storm watch may be
needed for a portion of the North Carolina coast tomorrow.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the
northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the southeast
coast of the United States, and will spread northward, reaching the
mid-Atlantic coast and the coast of southern New England during the
next few days.  These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and
rip current conditions.

2. Although the center of Jose is forecast to pass well east of the
North Carolina coast early next week, tropical-storm-force winds are
expected to extend well west of the center and could approach the
North Carolina Outer Banks on Monday.  Farther north along the U.S.
east coast, the chance of some direct impacts from Jose is
increasing, but it is too soon to determine their exact magnitude
and location.  Interests along the U.S. east coast from North
Carolina to New England should monitor the progress of Jose through
the weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0300Z 27.4N  71.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  16/1200Z 28.1N  71.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  17/0000Z 29.2N  72.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  17/1200Z 30.6N  72.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  18/0000Z 32.0N  72.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  19/0000Z 34.6N  71.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  20/0000Z 37.5N  71.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  21/0000Z 41.0N  68.5W   55 KT  65 MPH

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

SURF:  Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas,
the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the southeast
coast of the United States, and will spread northward along the
Mid-Atlantic coast of the U.S. during the next few days.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, 3-hour precipitation accumulations, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, and TAOS model for Tropical Cyclone 14L…and a tropical disturbance over the open Atlantic Ocean

Tropical Depression 14L remains active over the Atlantic Ocean…away from land

Here’s a closer satellite view, with the looping version…along with what the computer models are showing

According to the NHC:

The overall organization of the tropical depression has changed
little since this afternoon.  The center remains exposed to the
north and northwest of the deep convection, but there has been a
slight increase in banding over the southern semicircle within
the past hour or two.  The initial intensity remains 30 kt, which
is in agreement with Dvorak data T-numbers from both TAFB and
SAB.  The depression is forecast to remain within an area of
moderate to strong northwesterly shear during the next 24 to 36
hours while it moves over warm water.  Therefore, only slight
strengthening is indicated over the weekend.  After that time,
increasing westerly shear is forecast to weaken the cyclone, and it
is expected to become a remnant low by the end of the forecast
period.

The depression has turned westward since the previous advisory, and
the initial motion estimate is 280/9 kt. There has been no change
to the track forecast reasoning.  The cyclone should move westward
to west-northwestward to the south of a narrow ridge over the
eastern Atlantic through Sunday.  The global models indicate that
the ridge will weaken early next week as a large deep-layer trough
forms over the east-central Atlantic.  This is expected to result in
a slightly more poleward track later in the period.  The updated NHC
forecast is near the middle of the guidance through 48 hours, but
leans toward the left side of the envelope later in the period since
the typically reliable ECMWF and HFIP corrected consensus models are
along the southern edge envelope at 72 h and beyond.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0300Z 12.8N  30.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  16/1200Z 12.8N  31.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  17/0000Z 12.9N  33.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  17/1200Z 13.0N  34.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  18/0000Z 13.3N  35.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  19/0000Z 15.0N  39.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  20/0000Z 17.2N  43.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  21/0000Z 19.0N  47.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 

>>> Finally, there’s a tropical disturbance being investigated by the NHC, which could become tropical storm Lee later today or Saturday

1.) Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located a little more than 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands are showing signs of organization. Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development, and a tropical cyclone is likely to form during the next day or so while the system moves westward or west-northwestward around 20 mph. Interests in the Lesser Antilles and northeastern Caribbean should closely monitor the progress of this system. Tropical storm or hurricane watches could be issued for portions of the Lesser Antilles on Saturday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent

 

Atlantic Ocean

Tropical cyclone 12L (Jose)

NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Tropical cyclone 14L

NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

 

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