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Sep
14
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Cyclone 12L (Jose) is located about 500 miles south-southwest of Bermuda

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, and TAOS model for Tropical Storm Jose…as it remains over the open Atlantic Ocean

Tropical Storm Jose remains active over the Atlantic Ocean…away from land

Here’s a closer satellite view, with the looping version…along with what the computer models are showing

Here’s a graphic showing where TS Jose is…with additional information

TS Jose has maximum sustained winds near 70 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.

After more than a week as a hurricane, Jose weakened to a tropical storm today…while tracking westward in the Atlantic.

The National Hurricane Center reports that Jose will likely re-intensify into a hurricane again Friday.

Forecast guidance shows Jose then pulling up to the north and northeast, to the east of both the Bahamas and the United States…and west of Bermuda.

The National Weather Service in Newport, N.C. reported Thursday morning, “it’s still uncertain exactly how close Jose will track to the North Carolina coast.”

Meanwhile, swells generated by the storm are affecting the southeast U.S. coast as well as Bermuda, the Bahamas and Puerto Rico…which will spread toward the Mid-Atlantic coast over the next several days.

According to the NHC:

Although the shear affecting Jose for the past several days appears
to be relenting, deep convection is still limited to the eastern
semicircle of the cyclone, perhaps in part due to dry air that was
observed earlier today.  A blend a objective and subjective current
intensity estimates still supports an intensity of 60 kt.

No change has been made to the intensity forecast, which remains
near the multi-model consensus.  Based on SHIPS diagnostics from the
GFS and ECMWF models, Jose should become embedded in a more humid
environment beginning in about 12 h, and this, along with warm
SSTSs, should support at least gradual strengthening.  The intensity
guidance remains in fairly good agreement that Jose will become a
hurricane again tomorrow, and will have about 48-72 hours to
intensify further before the shear increases substantially.  Toward
the end of the forecast, gradual weakening is forecast, but Jose is
still expected to be a hurricane at day 5.

Much like the intensity forecast, very little change has been made
to the NHC track forecast.  Based on a few recent microwave images,
Jose seems to be continuing to move west-northwestward at around
7 kt.  Jose is still expected to track along the western periphery
of a mid-level ridge, causing the cyclone to gradually turn toward
the north over the next 2 days.  Aside from the UKMET, which
remains an outlier, the models are in fairly good agreement on the
future heading of Jose, and vary mostly in speed.  The new NHC
forecast continues to generally split the GFS and ECMWF models, and
is close to HCCA, which should account for the UKMET's recent west
bias.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the
northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the southeast
coast of the United States, and will spread northward along the
mid-Atlantic coast of the U.S. during the next few days.  These
swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current
conditions.

2. Jose could produce other direct impacts next week along portions
of the east coast of the United States from North Carolina northward
to New England, but it is too soon to determine what those impacts
might be or where they could occur.  Interests along U.S. east coast
from North Carolina northward to New England should monitor the
progress of Jose during the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0300Z 25.5N  68.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  15/1200Z 26.1N  69.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  16/0000Z 26.9N  70.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  16/1200Z 27.9N  72.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  17/0000Z 29.0N  72.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  18/0000Z 31.4N  72.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  19/0000Z 34.2N  71.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  20/0000Z 37.0N  70.5W   70 KT  80 MPH


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

SURF:  Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas,
the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the Southeast
coast of the United States, and will spread northward along the
Mid-Atlantic coast of the U.S. during the next few days.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.

PDC Disaster Alert, 1-day Precipitation Accumulations…with two tropical disturbances

Finally, in addition to TS Jose there is a tropical disturbance being investigated by the NHC

1.) A tropical wave located about 1200 miles east of the Windward Islands is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to form in 2 or 3 days. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor the progress of this system while it moves westward to west- northwestward at about 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent

 

Atlantic Ocean

Tropical cyclone 12L (Jose)

NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Tropical cyclone 14L

NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

 

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