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Sep
13
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 20W (Talim) is located about 191 NM west-northwest of Kadena AB, Okinawa, Japan

Tropical Cyclone 21W (Doksuri) is located about 170 NM east of Da Nang, Vietnam

Tropical Cyclone 15E is located about 960 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California

Tropical Cyclone 16E (Max) is located about 50 miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, and the TAOS model for Tropical Cyclone 20W (Talim)

Typhoon 20W (Talim) is active in the NW Pacific…eventually moving up through the Japanese Islands

Here’s a satellite image of this system…along with what the computer models are showing

Here’s a looping satellite image of this system

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center reports that satellite images show the central convection has significantly deepened and wrapped tighter into a ragged eye.

Environmental analysis indicates the system is in an area of low 5-10 knot wind shear, and is tracking through very warm sea water.

TY 20W is forecast to continue tracking northwestward, turning more northward…and then northeast after 48 hours.

Favorable conditions should result in rapid intensification, peaking at around 115 knots by 48 hours.

After 48 hours, TY Talim will gradually weaken, as wind shear aloft increases.

After 72 hours the system will make landfall over southern Kyushu…and then track over Honshu. Increasing wind shear and land interaction will cause the system to rapidly weaken by the end of the forecast period.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #23 were 120 knots with gusts of 145 knots

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, and the TAOS model for Tropical Cyclone 21W (Doksuri)

Typhoon 21W (Doksuri) remains active in the South China Sea…is taking aim on the east coast of Vietnam

Here’s a satellite image of this system…along with what the computer models are showing

Here’s a looping satellite image of this system

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center reports that satellite images show fragmented although deep convective cloud bands feeding into a well-defined low level circulation center.

Environmental analysis indicates the system is in an area of low 10-15 knot wind shear, with good equatorward outflow…as well as warm sea water temperatures.

TD 21Wwill track west-northwestward in the South China Sea…with the marginally favorable environment causing steady strengthening to a peak of 60 knots by 48 hours.

After 36 hours, TS 21W will reach the Gulf of Tonkin, and make landfall over northern Vietnam…into northern Cambodia.The favorable environment will allow for steady intensification, peaking at 75 knots within 36 hours.

Interaction with terrain will cause its gradual decay and eventual dissipation over land within 72 hours over Thailand.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #11 were 75 knots with gusts of 90 knots

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, and TAOS model for Tropical Storm 16E (Max) and Tropical Depression 16E…along with two tropical disturbances

Tropical Depression 15E remains active in the northeast Pacific…moving westward over the open eastern Pacific.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts.

There isn’t any threat to the Hawaiian Islands.

Here’s a satellite image of this system, with the looping version…along with what the computer models are showing

According to the NHC:

The depression continues to be disorganized with the low- and
middle-level centers well separated due to shear. This can be
clearly observed on conventional imagery as well as microwave data.
Given the lack of organization, the initial intensity is kept at 30
kt, and no change in strength is anticipated during the next 24
hours or so. After that time, the shear is forecast to decrease, and
the depression could become better organized and reach tropical
storm status. This is the scenario provided by most of the guidance.

My best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west-northwest
or 285 degrees at 4 kt. The depression continues to be trapped
within weak steering flow, and only a small westward drift is
forecast. In fact, by the end of the forecast period, the steering
currents are expected to collapse, and the cyclone will probably
begin to meander. The NHC forecast follows most of the guidance up
to 4 days. After that time, models diverge considerably and the
forecast is highly uncertain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0900Z 15.3N 122.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  14/1800Z 15.5N 123.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  15/0600Z 15.5N 124.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  15/1800Z 15.5N 124.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  16/0600Z 15.5N 125.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  17/0600Z 15.5N 125.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  18/0600Z 15.5N 125.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  19/0600Z 16.5N 125.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

Hurricane 16E (Max) remains active in the east Pacific…moving towards the Mexican coast

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph with higher gusts.

Here’s a satellite image of this system, with the looping version…along with what the computer models are showing

According to the NHC:

Radar imagery from Acapulco, Mexico, indicates that Max has
continued to improve in structure and now has a well-defined eye
and closed eyewall.  An eye has also occasionally been evident in
infrared satellite imagery.  Based on these signs, Max has been
upgraded to a hurricane with 65-kt winds.

Max appears to be cruising eastward just offshore the coast of
Mexico.  However, the hurricane is still expected to move inland
later today.  The 12-hour point has been adjusted southward and
increased to 75 kt to account for Max's recent motion, possible
delayed landfall, and increased opportunity to strengthen before it
reaches land.

The government of Mexico has changed the Tropical Storm Warning and
Hurricane Watch from Zihuatanejo to Punta Maldonado to a Hurricane
Warning.  Life-threatening flooding rainfall is still expected in
portions of the states of Guerrero and Oaxaca.

This special advisory is being issued in lieu of the regularly
scheduled 7 AM CDT intermediate public advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/1200Z 16.3N 100.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  14/1800Z 16.6N  99.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  15/0600Z 16.8N  99.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

RAINFALL:  Max is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 5 to 10 inches in the Mexican state of Guerrero and western
portions of the state of Oaxaca. Maximum amounts locally in excess
of 20 inches are possible over coastal areas of Guerrero. These
torrential rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.

WIND:  Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected to begin
soon within the warning area.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall.  Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

 

Finally, in the northeastern Pacific…there are two tropical disturbances

1.) Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system located about 400 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continue to show signs of organization, and it appears that a tropical depression could be forming. If these trends continue, advisories will likely be initiated on this system later today. The low is expected to drift northward during the next couple of days, and interests in the southern portion of Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…100 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…100 percent

2.) An area of low pressure located about 1500 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is producing persistent but disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Satellite imagery indicates that a well-defined center does not currently exist, and additional development, if any, is expected to be slow to occur while this system moves little during the next several days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

 

Eastern North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 15E

NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Tropical Cyclone 16E (Max)

NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

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