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Sep
13
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Cyclone 12L (Jose) is located about 495 miles south of Bermuda

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, and TAOS model for Hurricane Jose…as it remains over the open Atlantic Ocean

Hurricane Jose remains active over the Atlantic Ocean as a Category 1 storm 

Here’s the large view of Jose, with a closer view, with the looping version…along with what the computer models are showing

Here’s a graphic showing where Hurricane Jose is…with additional information

Hurricane Jose is a Category 1 storm…with maximum sustained winds near 80 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Jose continues making a loop over the western Atlantic, well south of Bermuda…and far to the east of the southeast coast of the U.S.

Hurricane Jose will complete this clockwise loop between Bermuda, the Bahamas and Puerto Rico by Thursday.

Forecast guidance shows Jose then pulling up to the north and northeast, to the east of both the Bahamas and the United States…and west of Bermuda.

High surf and rip currents will continue to affect the East Coast into next week.

According to the NHC:

Northwesterly shear continues to affect Jose, with exposed low cloud
lines over the northwestern portion of the circulation. Overall, the
system is a little less well-organized than it was 24 hours ago,
with less evidence of banding features.  The intensity is kept at 65
kt in agreement with the latest Dvorak classification from TAFB.
The global models continue to show significant shear over Jose for
the next several days, and this shear is forecast to become quite
strong by days 4 and 5.  The official intensity forecast shows a
little weakening in a couple of days, but it would not be surprising
to see Jose drop below hurricane status sooner than shown here.

Jose appears to be nearing the base of its anticipated anticyclonic
loop while drifting slowly southward.  The cyclone is expected to
turn to the west and west-northwest over the next day or so.  Later
in the forecast period, a northward motion is expected as a mid-
level high builds to the east-northeast.  Jose is expected to move
through a break in the subtropical ridge in 3-5 days.  The official
track forecast is similar to its predecessor and is about in the
middle of the reliable guidance suite.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/2100Z 25.3N  65.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  14/0600Z 25.1N  65.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  14/1800Z 25.4N  66.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  15/0600Z 26.2N  68.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  15/1800Z 27.3N  69.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  16/1800Z 30.3N  70.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  17/1800Z 33.2N  70.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  18/1800Z 36.0N  69.0W   60 KT  70 MPH 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 

SURF:  Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas,
the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the Southeast
coast of the United States, and will spread northward along the
Mid-Atlantic coast of the U.S. during the next few days.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. 

1.) A tropical wave located about 700 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system through early next week while it moves westward at around 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent

2.) Another tropical wave, located just offshore of the west coast of Africa, is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Some gradual development of this system is possible over the next several days while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across the far eastern tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent

 

Atlantic Ocean

Tropical cyclone 12L (Jose)

NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

 

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