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Aug
28
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 17W (Sanvu) is located about 402 NM east-southeast of Iwo To, Japan

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, for TC 17W (Sanvu)

Tropical Storm 17W (Sanvu) will strengthen…reaching typhoon status

Here’s a satellite image of this system…along with what the computer models are showing

Here’s a looping satellite image of this storm

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center reports that satellite depict a slowly consolidating low level circulation center, with deep convective banding over the southern semi-circle…wrapping into the east quadrant.

TS 17W is forecast to accelerate northward, as the steering ridge builds east of the system. This depression should intensify to a peak intensity of 70 knots by 72 hours, under favorable upper level conditions…and improving poleward outflow.

In the extended period, the system is forecast to re-curve and should begin its extra-tropical transition by 96 hours. Thereafter, the system should weaken as it encounters increasingly strong wind shear.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #3 were 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots

 

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, 1-day Precipitation Accumulation, and a tropical disturbance with a medium chance of developing (circled in orange above)

Meanwhile, in the northeastern Pacific, there’s a tropical disturbance…which now has a medium chance of developing within 2-days

This disturbance is being referred to as Invest 94E, here’s a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

An elongated area of low pressure centered about a couple of hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing widespread disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and this system is expected to become a tropical cyclone within two or three days while it moves generally northward or northwestward near the coast of southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur.

Residents in those areas should monitor the progress of this system, and tropical storm watches could be required for a portion of the area on Tuesday.

Regardless of development, very heavy rain is expected in southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur over the next few days and could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

Tropical cyclone 17W (Sanvu)

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

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