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Aug
25
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 16W (Pakhar) is located about 109 NM northeast of Manila, Philippines

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, and TAOS model for TC 16W (Pakhar)

Tropical Storm 16W (Pakhar) will weaken a little as it moves over Luzon in the Philippine Islands…then strengthen again over the warm waters of the South China Sea 

Here’s a satellite image of this system…along with what the computer models are showing

Here’s a looping satellite image of this storm

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center reports the system has slightly intensified as indicated by a burst of deep convection…just prior to landfall into northern Luzon via Aurora, Quezon.

Upper level analysis indicates the system has a strong equatorward outflow in an area of low to moderate 10-15 knot wind shear.

TY 16W will continue to track west-northwestward, drag across the mountain ranges of Luzon…then exit into the South China Sea (SCS) just before 24 hours, cross the SCS …then make a second landfall southwest of Hong Kong by 48 hours, before tracking more westward inland over China.

The system will lose some strength over Luzon, although will quickly intensify as it tracks over the warm SCS…and as favorable upper level conditions further improve. This in turn will intensify the system to a peak of 65 knots, possibly stronger, prior to its final landfall.

After 72 hours, 16W will track on a more west-southwestward trajectory…rapidly weaken due to the frictional effects from the rugged terrain, then completely dissipate over northern Vietnam by 96 hours.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #5 were 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, precipitation accumulation…and a tropical disturbance with a medium chance of developing

Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance which is being referred to as Invest 97W…located approximately 530 NM east-southeast of Andersen AFB, Guam

Here’s a satellite image…along with what the computer models are showing

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite images depict an elongated low level circulation…with convection renewing near the center.

The disturbance is located in a moderately favorable environment, with good poleward upper level outflow, low to moderate 10-15 knot wind shear…and warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models are divided in terms of track and intensification.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 15-20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is medium

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

Tropical cyclone 16W (Pakhar)

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

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