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Aug
24
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 16W is located about 301 NM east-northeast of Manila, Philippines

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, and TAOS model for TC 16W

Tropical Cyclone 16W is strengthening…as it heads towards Luzon in the Philippine Islands 

Here’s a satellite image of this system…along with what the computer models are showing

Here’s a looping satellite image of this storm

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center reports the system has rapidly consolidated as the central convection significantly deepened.

Upper level analysis indicates the system is in a favorable area, with low 5-10 knot wind shear, and strong equatorward outflow. In addition, sea surface temperatures along the track are highly conducive for further development.

TY 16W is forecast to track more northwestward after 12 hours. It is expected to make landfall over northern Luzon near Casiguran just before 24 hours, then exit into the South China Sea by 36 hours. After crossing the South China Sea, it will be located just south of Hong Kong within 72 hours.

Favorable conditions will persist and promote intensification up to 50 knots before striking Luzon. Luzon will temporarily weaken the system, although it will increase again over the warm waters of the South China Sea…peaking at typhoon intensify.

After 72 hours, 16W will make a final landfall just southwest of Hong Kong. Land interaction will gradually erode the system down to 30 knots by the end of the JTWC forecast period.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #1 were 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards…and a tropical disturbance with a low chance of developing

Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance which is being referred to as Invest 97W…located approximately 200 NM northwest of Kwajalein

Here’s a satellite image

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite images depict a low level cloud banding wrapping into a broad low level circulation…with flaring convection.

The disturbance is located in a moderately favorable environment, with good upper level outflow, low to moderate 15-20 knot wind shear…and warm sea surface temperatures.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 10-15 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

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