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Aug
10
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

There are no active tropical cyclones at the time of this writing

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, 3-hour precipitation accumulations…with a tropical disturbance that has a low chance of developing

However, there’s a tropical disturbance which is being referred to as Invest 90W…located approximately 380 NM southeast of Wake Island, in the western Pacific

Here’s a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite images depict an elongated circulation with convection pockets over the disturbance.

The disturbance is currently located in an area of low 10-15 knot wind shear, with good upper level outflow…and warm sea surface temperatures.

No Global models are currently indicating consolidation of this system.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 15-20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, 3-hour precipitation accumulations…with a tropical disturbance that has a low chance of developing

Meanwhile, there’s a second tropical disturbance which is being referred to as Invest 90S…located approximately 726 NM east-southeast of Diego Garcia…in the South Indian Ocean

Here’s a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite images depict an area of flaring convection to the southwest of a developing low level circulation center.

The upper level environment is currently marginal with weak upper level divergence, and 20-25 knots of wind shear. Meanwhile, sea surface temperatures in the area are favorably warm.

Global models track this system in a southwestward direction, and indicates steady development over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 15-20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, 3-hour precipitation accumulations…with a tropical disturbance that has a low chance of developing

1.) An area of low pressure is expected to form just off the west-central coast of Mexico late this week in association with the remnants of Atlantic Hurricane Franklin, after it moves across southern Mexico. Some development of this system may occur before it moves west-northwestward into a less conducive environment Sunday, or early next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent

2.) Another area of low pressure is forecast to form well south of the coast of southern Mexico this weekend, or early next week. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some slow development of this system as it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

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