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Aug
09
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Cyclone 07L (Franklin) is located about 70 miles north of Veracruz, Mexico

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards,Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, and error cone for Tropical Cyclone Franklin

Hurricane Franklin is crossing the southern Gulf of Mexico…and will go on to impact the east coast of mainland Mexico tonight

Mexico Civil Protection Director Ricardo de la Cruz said Tuesday that the storm’s impact on the Yucatan Peninsula was not as bad as initially feared, with some trees down and power out in some areas.

Hurricane Franklin will make its final landfall in eastern Mexico’s Bay of Campeche coast early Thursday…likely as the first hurricane of the season.

Either hurricane or tropical storm force winds may arrive as soon as late this afternoon along the coast…particularly in Veracruz state.

A storm surge of 4-6 feet is possible near and north of the center along the eastern Mexican Bay of Campeche coast late tonight and Thursday morning, before water levels subside…according to the National Hurricane Center.

Perhaps the most serious threat, however, may be from rainfall flooding.

Up to 15″ of rain may fall in eastern Mexico through Thursday, associated with Franklin’s move inland. Flash flooding and mudslides are likely to be major concerns as Franklin moves across this region’s mountainous terrain.

Here’s a Rainfall Forecast graphic through Thursday

High surf, rip currents, and possibly some minor coastal flooding should affect southern Texas today and Thursday…otherwise no problems are anticipated there.

Here’s a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

Here’s a looping satellite image of this hurricane.

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), TS Franklin continues to become better organized, with increasing inner-core convection and banding features. The initial intensity is set at 60 knots based on flight-level and surface winds from Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft.

Observations from the aircraft indicate that the central pressure is falling, which presages intensification. Radar observations from the NOAA aircraft indicate that a well-defined eyewall has not yet developed, however. The tropical cyclone will continue to traverse warm sea surface temperatures until landfall, with northerly wind shear possibly impeding strengthening.

However, the only evidence of this shear at this time is a slight restriction of the upper-level outflow over the northern portion of the circulation. Given the otherwise favorable atmospheric and oceanic environment, additional strengthening is forecast up to landfall. Center fixes from the aircraft give a generally westward motion at 11 knots.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* The coast of Mexico from Puerto de Veracruz to Cabo Rojo

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* The coast of Mexico north of Cabo Rojo to Rio Panuco

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* The coast of Mexico east of Puerto de Veracruz to Puerto Dos Bocas
* The coast of Mexico north of Tuxpan to Barra del Tordo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND:

RAINFALL: Franklin is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches across portions of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico through today. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible across the Mexican states of Tabasco, northern Veracruz, northern Puebla, Tlaxacala, Hidalgo, Queretar and eastern San Luis Potosi in eastern Mexico. These rains will be capable of producing life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the Hurricane Warning area by tonight. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength later today, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area along the southern shore of the Bay of Campeche through tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area in eastern Mexico by this evening.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in the Hurricane Warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, 3-hour precipitation accumulations…with a tropical disturbance that has a low chance of developing

Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance in the Atlantic Ocean…which has a low chance of developing through the next 2-days

This system may bring rain and wind to the islands of the eastern Caribbean later this week.

This disturbance is being referred to as Invest 99L, here’s a satellite image…along with what the computer models are showing.

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), shower activity has increased a little this morning in association with a trough of low pressure located about 400 miles east of the Leeward Islands.

Significant development of this system is not expected during the next couple of days due to unfavorable environmental conditions.

However, conditions are forecast to become somewhat conducive for development of this system late this week and this weekend while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward over the western Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent

>>> Disorganized shower activity over the Bahamas is associated with a trough of low pressure. Although development appears unlikely, this system could bring areas of heavy rain to portions of the Bahamas and Florida during the next day or two.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent

Atlantic Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

Tropical cyclone 07L  (Franklin)

NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

 

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