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Aug
08
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Cyclone 07L (Franklin) is located about 60 miles east-southeast of Campeche, Mexico

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, 3-hour precipitation accumulations,Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, for Tropical Cyclone Franklin

Tropical Storm Franklin will be moving into the southern Gulf of Mexico…and then impact the east coast of mainland Mexico

TS Franklin is spreading heavy rain and gusty winds over Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula.

TS Franklin will exit Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula later today, then will make its final landfall in eastern Mexico’s Bay of Campeche coast Thursday…possibly as the first hurricane of the season.

High surf, rip currents, and possibly some minor coastal flooding should affect southern Texas Wednesday and Thursday…otherwise no problems are anticipated.

Tropical storm warnings have now been dropped for the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, including Cancún and Cozumel.

A hurricane watch and tropical storm warning has been issued by the government of Mexico, ahead of Franklin’s second landfall in parts of eastern Mexico’s Veracruz state…including the city of Veracruz.

Here’s a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

Here’s a looping satellite image of this tropical storm.

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), TS Franklin’s center continues to move over the land mass of the Yucatan Peninsula. Since this area is relatively flat, only slow weakening is likely occurring. The morning sounding from Merida, located over northwest Yucatan, showed winds near 40 knots just above the surface.

Some additional weakening should occur as long as the center remains over land. A restrengthening trend is forecast to begin when the center moves into the Bay of Campeche later today or tonight. Even though Franklin will be moving over very warm sea surface temperatures while over the Bay of Campeche, the global models show northerly shear affecting the cyclone as it nears the southwest Gulf coast of Mexico.

Although this wind shear could impede intensification, Franklin could be near hurricane intensity when it nears the coast late Wednesday. Therefore, it is prudent to maintain the Hurricane Watch. The motion continues to be west-northwestward at near 11 knots. A mid-tropospheric ridge is forecast to remain in place to the north of Franklin over the next couple of days. This should cause the tropical cyclone to move west-northwestward to westward until its second landfall.

Residents of the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize can expect 4-8 inches of rain with locally higher amounts, which could result in life-threatening flash flooding. This heavy rain may last into Wednesday, as a north-south oriented plume of thunderstorms on Franklin’s eastern half moves through in its wake.

Here’s a Rainfall Forecast graphic through Thursday

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* The coast of Mexico from Puerto de Veracruz to Rio Panuco

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* The coast of Mexico from Rio Lagartos to Sabancuy
* The coast of Mexico from Puerto de Veracruz to Rio Panuco

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* The coast of Mexico from Sabancuy to Puerto de Veracruz

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND:

RAINFALL: Franklin is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico through Wednesday. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches are possible across northern portions of Belize and northern portions of Guatemala. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible across the Mexican states of Tabasco, northern Veracruz, northern Puebla, Tlaxacala, Hidalgo, Queretar and eastern San Louis Potosi in eastern Mexico. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely still occurring over portions of the northern and western Yucatan peninsula. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area by Wednesday evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area in mainland Mexico by Wednesday evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area today and tonight.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in the Hurricane Watch area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, 3-hour precipitation accumulations…with a tropical disturbance that has a low chance of developing

Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance in the central Atlantic Ocean…which has a low chance of developing

This system may bring rain and wind to the islands of the eastern Caribbean later this week…although it’s too soon to forecast beyond that.

This disturbance is being referred to as Invest 99L, here’s a satellite image…along with what the computer models are showing.

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), a trough of low pressure located about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles continues to produce an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

Development of this system is not expected during the next few days due to unfavorable environmental conditions.

However, some development of this system is possible this weekend while the system moves generally west-northwestward at about 15 mph over the western Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent

 

Atlantic Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

Tropical cyclone 07L  (Franklin)

NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

 

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