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Aug
07
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Cyclone 07L (Franklin) is located about 170 miles east-northeast of Belize City

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, 1-day precipitation accumulations,Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, for Tropical Cyclone Franklin

Tropical Storm Franklin will strengthen temporarily over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, crossing the Yucatan Peninsula into the Gulf of Mexico…and then on to the east coast of mainland Mexico

Tropical Storm Franklin formed over the western Caribbean Sea yesterday, and threatens to strike Mexico.

After some weakening occurs Tuesday as it passes over the Yucatan Peninsula, Franklin is likely to restrengthen over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night and Wednesday. Franklin could be a hurricane by the time it makes a second landfall between Tampico and Veracruz, Mexico, on Thursday.

Here’s a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

Here’s a looping satellite image of this tropical storm.

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), visible and microwave satellite imagery shows that Franklin’s cloud pattern is becoming better organized, with cloud banding features starting to appear. Inner-core convection is not very abundant over the southwest quadrant, and the center is still estimated to be located near the southwest edge of the main cloud mass.

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Franklin this afternoon, and should provide a better estimate of the strength of the storm. The upper-level environment is becoming increasingly conducive for intensification, with anticyclonic outflow becoming established over the tropical cyclone during the next couple of days.

Franklin could become a hurricane before its first landfall, but interaction with the Yucatan Peninsula will cause some weakening on Tuesday. Thereafter, Franklin will be moving over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, which of course favors strengthening.

A complicating factor at days 2 and 3 could be some northerly wind shear associated with an upper-level ridge over northeastern Mexico, as indicated by the global models. Nonetheless Franklin should be near or at hurricane intensity by the time it makes landfall in mainland Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles from the center.

TS Franklin will first affect Honduras and Nicaragua, then Belize, southeastern Mexico and northern Guatemala.

Downpours and gusty thunderstorms will increase and spread westward…while seas and surf build in the region.

Franklin will bring flooding rainfall with totals of 4-8 inches in some locations, along with damaging wind gusts of 40-60 mph to the Yucatan Peninsula.

High pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico is expected to prevent Franklin from turning northward to Texas. However, rain may clip South Texas, and rough seas may endanger swimmers all along the state’s coastline…as it moves into Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* The coast of Mexico from Chetumal to Punta Allen

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Belize City northward to the border of Mexico
* The coast of Mexico from Chetumal to Campeche

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* The coast of Mexico from Campeche to Sabancuy

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND:

RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of around 12 inches, are possible across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and Belize through Wednesday, with the highest amounts over the Mexican state of Quintana Roo. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area by this evening. Tropical Storm conditions are expected to begin in portions of the warning area this afternoon or evening. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Mexico on Tuesday.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, 1-day precipitation accumulations…with a tropical disturbance that has a low chance of developing

Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance in the central Atlantic Ocean…which has a low chance of developing

This system may bring rain and wind to the islands of the eastern Caribbean later this week…although it’s too soon to forecast beyond that.

This disturbance is being referred to as Invest 99L, here’s a satellite image…along with what the computer models are showing.

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), an elongated area of low pressure located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

Unfavorable environmental conditions should limit development of this system during the next few days, but some development is possible by the weekend.

This system is expected to move generally west-northwestward across the tropical Atlantic at about 15 mph during the next several days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

 

Atlantic Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

Tropical cyclone 07L  (Franklin)

NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

There are no current tropical cyclones

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

 

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