Pacific Disaster Center Fostering Disaster Resilient Communities  

Providing Weather and Hazard Related News

Weather Wall

 

 

Jul
17
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 06E (Fernanda) is located about 1650 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii

Tropical Cyclone 07E is located about 340 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, 1-day precipitation accumulations, and Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, and TAOS wind estimates for Tropical Cyclones 06E (Fernanda) and Tropical Cyclone 07E…along with a tropical disturbance circled in orange

Tropical Cyclone 06E (Fernanda) is generally heading towards the Hawaiian Islands, having peaked at a Category 4 major hurricane along the way…and will be trending weaker as it pushes into the central Pacific Thursday

Here’s a satellite image of this hurricane, and what the computer models are showing.

Here’s a looping satellite image

Here’s a near real-time wind profile of this hurricane

According to the National Hurricane Center, Fernanda’s eye has – once again – become clear in the shortwave infrared imagery with a slightly asymmetric ring of very cold cloud tops surrounding the 15 NM eye. It is currently showing a 110 knot intensity, maintaining Fernanda as a Category 3 hurricane.

In the short term, the sea water temperatures beneath Fernanda will gradually cool in about 36 hours. By days 4 and 5, the wind shear should increase substantially. Thus, the official intensity forecast shows steady weakening with the system becoming a remnant low around day 5.

The hurricane is tracking toward the west-northwest at about 9 knots. Fernanda is expected to turn slightly toward the northwest during the next couple of days, as it moves around the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge.

By days 3 to 5, the system should turn back toward the west, as it gets advected along in the low-level flow as a weakening tropical cyclone.

>>> The Hawaiian Islands will need to keep an eye on this system. Fernanda will likely move into the Central Pacific on Thursday. The first influence of this storm will be rising high surf along the east facing shores of the islands. It’s still too early to know exactly what other possible weather elements would eventually affect the Aloha State later in the week. Although, the current NHC forecast calls for a rather abrupt weakening trend even before arriving in the central Pacific. The most likely impact this, what will likely then be a remnant low pressure system, could be increasing clouds and showers…some of which may be locally heavy.

Tropical Cyclone 07E is now active…on its way to becoming tropical storm Greg

Here’s a satellite image of this tropical depression, and what the computer models are showing.

Here’s a looping satellite image

Here’s a near real-time wind profile of this system

According to the National Hurricane Center, reports that recent satellite data indicate that the area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico, has acquired a well-defined center, and the associated deep convection is sufficiently organized for the system to be classified as a tropical depression.

This marks the formation of the seventh cyclone of the eastern Pacific hurricane season. The system is sheared with the center located near the northwestern edge of the primary convective mass. The environment ahead of the cyclone is not ideal for significant strengthening. Moderate to strong northwesterly shear is expected to continue for another 24 hours, but is then forecast to lessen late Tuesday between two large upper level lows.

The shear is expected to become quite strong by day 4, when the cyclone approaches the westernmost upper low/trough. This wind shear, along with cooler waters, should cause weakening late in the period. The depression is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward to the south of a mid-level ridge located over northern Mexico and the western United States.

The track guidance is in relatively good agreement through 72 hours, but there is significant spread after that time, due to possible interaction with a disturbance currently located about 750 NM west of the depression. The ECMWF model takes the depression on a more northward track around the northern portion of the circulation of the western system, while the GFS weakens the depression and shows it merging with the second disturbance. Given the large spread in the guidance, there is a low confidence.

>>> At the same time, there’s a tropical disturbance in the eastern Pacific being referred to as Invest 98E…located between Tropical Cyclone’s 06E and 07E

Here’s a satellite image…along with the looping version

According to the National Hurricane Center, showers and thunderstorms have also increased during the past day or so, near an area of low pressure centered about 900 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula.

Although environmental conditions are only marginally conducive, this system has the potential to become a tropical depression during the next day or so before upper-level winds become unfavorable for development.

The low is expected to move slowly to the west or west-northwest during the next few days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent

 

Eastern North Pacific

Tropical cyclone 06E (Fernanda)

NHC textual forecasts advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Tropical cyclone 07E 

NHC textual forecasts advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5-days

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.