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Jul
14
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 06E (Fernanda) is located about 1020 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, 1-day precipitation accumulations, and Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, and TAOS wind estimates for Tropical Cyclone 06E (Fernanda)

Tropical Cyclone 06E (Fernanda) is generally heading towards the Hawaiian Islands, likely becoming a Category 4 major hurricane along the way…before trending weaker as it pushes into the central Pacific

Here’s a satellite image of this hurricane, and what the computer models are showing.

Here’s a looping satellite image

Here’s a near real-time wind profile of this hurricane

According to the National Hurricane Center, the satellite presentation of Fernanda continues to improve. An eye has been apparent in shortwave and longwave IR imagery for the past several hours. The initial intensity has been increased to 100 knots, making Fernanda the second major hurricane of the 2017 eastern North Pacific hurricane season.

Fernanda remains in a very favorable environment for intensification. The cyclone’s intensity has increased by 40 knots in the past 24 hours, and there are no current indications that the period of rapid intensification has ended. In fact, the hurricane is now approaching an area of higher ocean heat content.

Surprisingly, most of the guidance shows relatively little increase in intensity during the next 48 hours. Considering that most of the guidance has thus far shown not nearly the extent of intensification that has been observed, the NHC forecast remains well above the guidance.

The NHC forecast has been adjusted substantially higher for the first 36 hours, to account for the higher initial intensity. Beyond 48 hours, lower sea surface temperatures along the forecast track, and a drier environment should lead to a gradual weakening.

The hurricane is continuing its steady westward track for the next day or so, before turning toward the west-northwest due to a weakening of the ridge to the north.

>>> The Hawaiian Islands will need to keep a close eye on this system. Fernanda will likely move into the Central Pacific towards the middle next week. The first possible influence of this storm would be rising high surf along the east facing shores of the islands towards Wednesday. It’s still too early to know what other possible weather elements would eventually affect the Aloha State later in the week. Although, the current NHC forecast calls for a rather abrupt weakening trend even before arriving in the central Pacific.

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, 1-day precipitation accumulations

Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance offshore to the west-northwest of Taiwan, which is being referred to as Invest 93W…located approximately 385 NM south-southeast of Tokyo, Japan

Here’s a satellite image of this disturbance, and what the computer models are showing

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite images show a fully exposed and elongated low level circulation center, with remaining convection sheared to the east and no longer wrapping into the center.

The disturbance is currently located in a marginal environment, due to moderately strong 10-20 knot wind shear, offset by good upper level outflow…and warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models agree that the disturbance will continue tracking to the north-northeast, although no longer indicate that it will consolidate into a tropical cyclone.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 20-25 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours has been downgraded to low

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, 1-day precipitation accumulations

Finally, there’s another tropical disturbance in the South China Sea, which is being referred to as Invest 94W…located approximately 420 NM southeast of Hanoi, Vietnam

Here’s a satellite image of this disturbance…and what the models are showing

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite images show a very broad circulation with pockets of flaring convection throughout the area, and persistent convection displaced to the south.

The disturbance is currently located in a mostly unfavorable environment, due to moderate 10-20 knot wind shear, offset by weak upper level outflow and very warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models are mostly in agreement that the disturbance will track to the north, before curving west near Hainan Island…although are split regarding consolidation on whether it will become a TC before approaching Hainan Island.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 15-20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low

 

Eastern North Pacific

Tropical cyclone 06E (Fernanda)

NHC textual forecasts advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

1.) A broad area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles south of Mexico during the next few days. Environmental conditions are forecast to be somewhat conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression could form next week while the system moves slowly toward the west-northwest.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5-days

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

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