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Jul
13
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 06E (Fernanda) is located about 845 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, 1-day precipitation accumulations, and Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, and TAOS wind estimates for Tropical Cyclone 06E (Fernanda)

Tropical Cyclone 06E (Fernanda) remains a tropical storm, as it generally heads towards the Hawaiian Islands…likely becoming a Category 3 hurricane with time

Here’s a satellite image of this storm, and what the computer models are showing.

Here’s a looping satellite image

Here’s a near real-time wind profile of this tropical storm

According to the National Hurricane Center, recent satellite images show that Fernanda has begun to establish good outflow in all quadrants, indicating that the wind shear that previously affected the tropical storm is diminishing. Meanwhile, convection is wrapping all the way around a mid-level center, although the low-level center remains displaced a little to the north-northeast.

Confirming what the satellite data suggests, the analyzed wind shear has decreased below 10 knots, while warm sea surface temperatures, and sufficient moisture are also contributing to an environment that is very conducive for continued intensification.

The models show a greater than 50 percent chance of a 30 knot increase in 24 hours, and a 45 knot increase in 48 hours. This is a notable increase in the probabilities which have doubled in the last 12 hours. Considering the convective structure of the cyclone has improved over the past few hours, and the lack of any obvious inhibiting environmental factors, rapid intensification within the next 24 or 36 hours seems likely.

The intensity forecast has been substantially increased for the first 48 hours, and now explicitly shows an increase of 30 knots within 24 hours. Fernanda is forecast to be at or near major hurricane strength by tomorrow evening, with conditions favoring additional intensification after that. Near the end of the forecast period, the hurricane is expected to encounter decreasing sea surface temperatures…that could cause slight weakening.

A deep-layer ridge extending over a large portion of the eastern north Pacific will steer Fernanda generally westward for the next 2-3 days. Most of the dynamical guidance still shows a slight weakening of the ridge after about 3 days which would cause Fernanda to turn toward the northwest.

>>> The Hawaiian Islands will need to keep a close eye on this system. Fernanda will likely move into the Central Pacific towards the middle next week…possibly as a major Category 3 hurricane. The first possible influence of this storm would be rising high surf along the east facing shores of the islands towards next Wednesday. It’s still too early to know what other possible weather elements would eventually affect the Aloha State later in the week.

 

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, 1-day precipitation accumulations

Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance offshore to the west-northwest of Taiwan, which is being referred to as Invest 93W…located approximately 50 NM south of Chichi-Jima, Japan

Here’s a satellite image of this disturbance, and what the computer models are showing

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite images depicts a partially exposed, developing low level circulation center, with low level clouds wrapping into a defined center.

Overall, the upper level environment is complex, although favorable. Additionally, warm sea surface temperatures are favorable for further development.

Global models show a slow northward track, with no significant development, however, the models are struggling with this system.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 15-20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is medium

>>> Finally, there’s another tropical disturbance in the South China Sea, which is being referred to as Invest 94W…located approximately 350 NM southeast of Hanoi, Vietnam

Here’s a satellite image of this disturbance…and what the models are showing

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite images show a well-defined, exposed low level circulation center, with limited deep convective cloud banding…over the southern semi-circle of the center.

Animated radar imagery from Taiwan (click on 12hr loop), shows a very broad circulation, with flaring convection throughout…and persistent convection displaced to the south of the disturbance.

The disturbance is located in an area of weak upper level outflow, low to moderately strong wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models are in agreement that the disturbance will track to the north-northwest over the next few days, although are mixed as to when and if it will consolidate.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 10-15 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low

 

Eastern North Pacific

Tropical cyclone 06E (Fernanda)

NHC textual forecasts advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

1.) A broad area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles south of Mexico during the weekend. Gradual development of this system is possible as it moves slowly toward the west-northwest.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5-days

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

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