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Jul
12
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 05E (Eugene) is located about 510 miles west-southwest of Punta Eugenia, Mexico

Tropical Cyclone 06E (Fernanda) is located about 760 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, 1-day precipitation accumulations, and Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, and TAOS wind estimates for Tropical Cyclone 05E (Eugene)…and 06E (Fernanda)

Tropical Cyclone 05E (Eugene) is a weakening tropical depression…and will likely become a post-tropical low later today

Here’s a satellite image of this TD, and what the computer models are showing.

Here’s a near real-time wind profile of this tropical depression

Eugene was the strongest tropical cyclone in the Eastern Pacific so far this season

According to the National Hurricane Center, Eugene is not quite ready to quit. Deep convection continues in the northeastern quadrant of the system, though this is not very deep nor extensive. Given the spin-down likely occurring, the intensity is assessed at 30 knots, downgrading Eugene to a tropical depression.

The system should lose deep convection shortly as it moves over cooler sea water…becoming a remnant low by tonight. By day 3 or 4, Eugene’s circulation is likely to open up into a trough. The intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory.

The tropical depression is moving toward the northwest at 9 knots, steered around the periphery of a subtropical ridge over northwestern Mexico. This motion should continue for the next couple of days, then slow by day 3 before dissipation.

Swells generated by Eugene will continue to affect the west coast of northern Baja California peninsula and southern California during the next day or two, causing dangerous surf and rip current conditions.

Tropical Cyclone 06E (Fernanda) is now a tropical storm…heading towards being a Category 2 hurricane

Here’s a satellite image of this storm, and what the computer models are showing.

Here’s a near real-time wind profile of this tropical storm

According to the National Hurricane Center, convection associated with Tropical Depression 06E has become better organized during the past several hours. While the cyclone is still being affected by northeasterly wind shear, an area of convection has formed over the center, and outer convective bands are present in the southwestern semicircle.

An average of various satellite intensity estimates is 35 knots, and based on this…the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Fernanda. Deep-layer ridging north of the cyclone is steering it generally westward, and the ridge is expected to strengthen and build westward during the next 4-5 days.

Based on this evolution, Fernanda should move generally westward or south of westward through at least 72 hours, with a north of west motion expected thereafter.

The large-scale models suggest that the current shear should subside over the next 24 hours or so, and then remain light through the remainder of the forecast period. That, combined with the warm sea surface temperatures along the forecast track, should allow the system to intensify.

As seen in the previous advisory, the new intensity forecast calls for gradual strengthening during the first 24-36 hours, followed by a faster rate of development from 36-72 hours. It should be noted that while the environment is not currently conducive for rapid intensification, it may become more favorable once the wind shear decreases.

>>> Tropical Storm Fernanda will move generally westward, and as a result, the Hawaiian Islands will need to keep an eye on this system. Fernanda will likely move into the Central Pacific next week…possibly as a hurricane.

 

Eastern North Pacific

Tropical cyclone 05E (Eugene)

NHC textual forecasts advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Tropical cyclone 06E (Fernanda)

NHC textual forecasts advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

1.) A broad area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles south of Mexico during the weekend. Gradual development of this system is possible as it moves slowly toward the west-northwest.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5-days

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

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