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Jul
11
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone Eugene is located about 530 miles south-southwest of Punta Eugenia, Mexico

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, 1-day precipitation accumulations, and Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, and TAOS wind estimates for Tropical Cyclone 05E (Eugene)

Tropical Cyclone 05E (Eugene) is a weakening tropical storm…whose main threat will be high surf and rip currents along the west coast of California and Southern California

Here’s a satellite image of this storm, and what the computer models are showing.

Here’s a near real-time wind profile of this tropical storm

Eugene was the strongest tropical cyclone in the Eastern Pacific so far this season

According to the National Hurricane Center, deep convection associated with Eugene is diminishing in depth and areal coverage. The initial intensity is set at 45 knots, though this is with a substantial amount of uncertainty.

The system is moving toward the northwest at about 9 knots. TS Eugene is expected to continue moving in the same direction and speed for the next couple of days.

Eugene has been weakening due to ingestion of cool and dry air, as it moves into the stratocumulus filled waters west of Baja California. This will continue due to the northwestward track over an even cooler sea surface during the next two days.

It is expected that Eugene will lose its deep convection and become a remnant low in 24-36 hours and dissipate completely in about 5 days.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 

SURF: Swells generated by Eugene are affecting portions of the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula, and will spread northward to portions of southern California today and Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards and 1-day precipitation accumulations

Meanwhile, there’s also a tropical disturbance in the eastern Pacific being referred to as Invest 96E…located several hundred miles south-southwest of the coast of Mexico

If this tropical disturbance becomes a tropical storm…it would take on the name Fernanda.

Here’s a satellite image of this disturbance, and what the computer models are showing

Here’s a near real-time wind profile of this tropical disturbance

The models suggest that what may become tropical depression 06E soon, and would migrate westward…rather than moving parallel to the Mexican/Baja California coast…like Eugene has. If this does occur, the Hawaiian Islands would need to begin watching this next system more closely with time.

According to the National Hurricane Center, satellite imagery indicates that shower activity associated with the low pressure area several hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico has become better organized.

Conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression could form during the next day or two while it moves westward at about 10 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent

 

Eastern North Pacific

Tropical cyclone Eugene

NHC textual forecasts advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5-days

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

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