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Jun
28
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Post-Tropical Cyclone 04E (Dora) is dissipating in the eastern Pacific…located about 320 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California – Final Advisory

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, 1-day precipitation accumulations, and Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, and TAOS wind estimates for now retired Post-Tropical Cyclone 04E (Dora)

Post-Tropical Cyclone 04E (Dora) was the season’s first hurricane…and now has become a remnant low pressure system

Here’s a NASA satellite image, the latest NOAA satellite image of this system

Looping satellite image of this now retired tropical cyclone

Here’s a near time wind profile of Post-tropical cyclone Dora

The NHC Advisory #15 showed that Hurricane Dora had sustained 35 knot winds…with some higher gusts

According to the National Hurricane Center  (NHC), Dora has been devoid of deep convection for more than 12 hours, and the cyclone has degenerated into a remnant low, composed of mostly low-level stratocumulus clouds.

Redevelopment of significant convection is not expected due to unfavorable sea surface temperatures, and dissipation is expected to occur in 36-48 hours.

A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the Dora should keep the weakening remnant low moving in a general west-northwestward motion for the next couple of days.

 

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, 1-day precipitation accumulations

Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance in the western Pacific, which is being referred to as Invest 98W…located approximately 335 NM east-southeast of Palau

Here’s a satellite image of this disturbance…along with what the computer models are showing

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite images show disorganized, flaring deep convection over the west quadrant of a broad low level circulation center.

Upper level analysis reveals the system is in an area favorable for development, with good poleward outflow…and low wind shear.

Global models depict a northwestward track with gradual development.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 10-15 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low

 

Eastern North Pacific

Post-Tropical Cyclone 04E (Dora) Final Advisory

NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

>>> Meanwhile, a broad area of low pressure is expected to form late this week a few hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Some gradual development of this system is possible over the weekend while it moves west-northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5-days

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

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