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Jun
20
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Cyclone 02L (Bret) remains active in the eastern Caribbean…located about 315 miles east of Curacao

Potential Tropical Cyclone 03L remains active in the Gulf of Mexico…located about 355 miles southeast of Galveston, Texas

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, 1-day precipitation accumulations, and Tropical Cyclone segments, wind radii, positions for Tropical Cyclone 02L (Bret)

Tropical Cyclone 02L (Bret) is the second tropical cyclone of the 2017 hurricane season…forecast to weaken as it moves across the eastern Caribbean Sea

Here’s the latest NOAA satellite image of this system…and what the computer models are showing

Looping satellite image of this tropical cyclone

Here’s a near real-time wind profile of TC 02L

The NHC Advisory #8 shows that TC 02L had sustained 40 knot winds…with 50 mph gusts

According to the National Hurricane Center  (NHC), the cloud pattern associated with TS Bret is becoming somewhat elongated, due to southerly wind shear. However, Bret produced sustained surface winds of 40 knot when it passed south of Grenada.

The intensity forecast remains unchanged, and the cyclone is expected to weaken, as it moves toward a hostile environment of strong southerly wind shear caused by an upper-trough in the central Caribbean Sea.

Bret will most likely degenerate into a low or an open trough in a day or so, if not sooner. This is consistent with most of the dynamical models.

Although the center is difficult to locate, the best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west-northwest or 290 degrees at 18 knots. The cyclone is well embedded within the easterly trade wind flow around the Atlantic subtropical ridge, and Bret will likely continue on this same general motion until dissipation.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the warning area, but these conditions should subside later today. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by tonight and Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Bret is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over the Windward Islands and the northeastern coast of Venezuela through today.

 

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, 24-hour precipitation accumulation

Potential Tropical Cyclone 03L is now moving through the Gulf of Mexico…and would take on the name Cindy if were to become a tropical storm

A tropical storm warning has been issued for parts of the Louisiana and Texas coastline.

Here’s the latest NOAA satellite image of this system…and what the computer models are showing

Looping satellite image of this tropical cyclone

Here’s a near real-time wind profile of TC 03L

Here’s a weather graphic showing the current alerts associated with this tropical system / Here’s the latest radar image for this system / An image showing potential rainfall

The NHC Advisory #4 shows that TC 03L had sustained 35 knot winds…with 45 mph gusts

Landfall along the upper Texas coast or over western Louisiana is possible…and could occur Wednesday night or Thursday morning.

Rainfall of 6-12 inches is likely over part of the central Gulf Coast states with locally higher amounts of 15-20 inches possible.

According to the National Hurricane Center  (NHC), Visible satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the circulation of the low has become better organized since yesterday, but still lacks a well-defined center.

For now the system is being maintained as a potential tropical cyclone, however, the system could be classified as a tropical or subtropical cyclone later today. The current intensity is maintained at 35 knots based largely on continuity pending an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission into the system later today.

Only limited strengthening is forecast before the system moves inland due to the strong shear over the cyclone, caused by an upper-level low centered off the Texas coast. The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 320/09, as there are still multiple low-level cloud swirls circulating around a mean center, and some erratic motion is still possible until a better-defined center forms.

However, the system should be steered generally northwestward over the next 36 hours or so, as it interacts with the aforementioned upper-level low, and then turns more north-northwestward by 48 hours. The NHC track forecast is a little faster than the previous one in the short range, and shows the system moving inland over western Louisiana and eastern Texas by 48 hours.

After that time, the system should recurve into the mid-latitude flow and accelerate northward and northeastward across the lower Mississippi Valley into the southern and central Appalachians on days 3 and 4…before dissipating.

The primary hazard from this disturbance is expected to be heavy rainfall over portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast. In addition, there will be risks of strong and frequent rip currents along much of the Gulf coast . The most threatening conditions are likely from northern Florida to Louisiana.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area later today and spread westward within the warning area through Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on Wednesday.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 9 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches over southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle through Thursday. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches can be expected farther west across southwest Louisiana into southeast Texas through Thursday.

STORM SURGE: Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is possible along the coast in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible this afternoon and tonight from south-central Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle.

 

Atlantic Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

Tropical Cyclone 02L (Bret)

NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

Potential Tropical Cyclone 03L

NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

 

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