Pacific Disaster Center Fostering Disaster Resilient Communities  

Providing Weather and Hazard Related News

Weather Wall

 

 

Jun
16
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones at the time of this writing

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, 24-hour precipitation accumulation

However,  a tropical disturbance has a low to medium chance of forming in the Atlantic Ocean…within the next 2-5 days

This area of disturbed weather is being referred to as Invest 92L, here’s a satellite image…along with what the computer models are showing

According to the National Hurricane Center, cloudiness and showers associated with a tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continue to show signs of organization. Slow development is possible during the next few days while the wave moves westward at 15-20 mph over the tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent

Tropical waves are areas of showers and thunderstorms, which typically move westward near or just north of the equator…and can spin up into tropical cyclones.

The favored models show a track that would take this wave along the coasts of Venezuela, Guyana, and the southernmost Lesser Antilles early next week, or even into the southeast Caribbean. However, disturbances entering the Caribbean this time of year are likely to encounter strong wind shear aloft…limiting the potential for full development.

 

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, 24-hour precipitation accumulation

Meanwhile, an area of low pressure may form over or near the Yucatan Peninsula later this weekend. This area may then move over the Bay of Campeche in the southern Gulf of Mexico early next week. Sea surface temperatures (85F) in and around the Yucatan are conducive for development, although wind shear aloft remains unfavorable for development at the moment.

Additionally, as the system tries to form, its interaction with land surfaces over Mexico will play a part in its potential for development as well.

According to the NHC: a broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the Yucatan peninsula during the next day or two.

Conditions appear to be favorable for gradual development of this system, while it moves slowly northwestward into the southern Gulf of Mexico early next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low 10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent

This NHC graphic shows where this may occur…along with the projected path for the tropical disturbance now well southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands (orange hatched areas)

The eventual track of this system next week is likely to be to the west-northwest or northwest, with the primary threat to land being along the east coast of Mexico…by the middle of next week.

However, at least one model suggests that the northern portion of the low pressure center might become a tropical depression, which could pull moisture northwards along the west coast of Florida. This in turn could cause flooding rains along the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and western Florida late next week. Uncertainty reins at the current time…stay tuned.


Atlantic Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Cloudiness and showers associated with a tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands have become better organized since yesterday. Additional slow development is possible during the next few days while the wave moves westward at 15-20 mph over the tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

A large area of disturbed weather has formed over the western Caribbean Sea and the adjacent portions of Central America. Conditions appear to be favorable for gradual development of this system while it moves slowly northwestward across the Yucatan Peninsula this weekend and into the southern and central Gulf of Mexico early next week. Regardless of development, heavy rains are likely to spread over portions of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next several days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

There are no current tropical cyclones

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.