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Jun
15
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones at the time of this writing

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, 3-hour precipitation accumulation

However,  a tropical disturbance has a low chance of forming in the eastern Atlantic Ocean…within the next 2-5 days

According to the National Hurricane Center, a tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next few days…while the wave moves westward near 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic.

Tropical waves are areas of showers and thunderstorms, which typically move westward near or just north of the equator…and can spin up into tropical cyclones.

If this particular tropical wave remains south of a zone of strong westerly winds aloft, and an area of dry air near the surface, it could possibly develop over the next few days.

If this system were to take a southern path, it could bring showers to the Windward Islands Sunday or early next week.

Here’s a weather graphic showing the details described above.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

>>> Meanwhile, a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Central America will drift northward over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico this weekend…which has a medium chance becoming a tropical depression or tropical storm next week.

A flow of dry air is forecast to develop over the southeastern United States early next week. If this occurs as expected, then Florida and the northeastern Gulf of Mexico could be sheltered from the possible storm.

However, if this feature is weak or breaks down, then the possible tropical system could drift into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico.

While winds aloft over the Yucatan Peninsula, the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and the northwestern Caribbean Sea are currently too strong to allow development, this wind shear could ease next week.

This NHC graphic shows where this may occur (orange)…along with the projected path for the tropical disturbance now well south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands (Yellow)

Waters in the vicinity of the Yucatan Peninsula are warm enough for tropical cyclone development…while the waters in the north and eastern Gulf of Mexico are marginal for development.

The eventual track any potential storm would likely be west-northwest or northwest, with the primary threats to land being along the Gulf of Mexico coasts of Mexico and Texas by the middle of next week…although other models are showing potential tracks into Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Interests from Belize and eastern Mexico throughout the Gulf coast of the United States should monitor the possible formation of this system.


Atlantic Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

A tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next few days while the wave moves westward near 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

A complex area of low pressure is expected to form over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the Yucatan peninsula this weekend. Conditions appear to be favorable for gradual development of this system, while it moves slowly northwestward toward the southern Gulf of Mexico by early next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

There are no current tropical cyclones

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

 

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