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May
31
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone 02E is now active…located about 250 miles southeast of Acapulco, Mexico

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards,, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, and wind radii, and  TAOS wind estimates for Tropical Cyclone 02E

Tropical Cyclone 02E is the second tropical cyclone in 2017, and will gradually increase in strength…becoming a tropical storm named Beatriz

Here’s the latest NOAA satellite image of this system…and what the computer models are showing

Looping satellite image of this tropical cyclone

Here’s a near real-time wind profile of TC 02E

Here’s the current Alerts along the Mexican coast

Due to its slow movement near the Mexican coast, over a foot of rain is possible in Oaxaca state through the weekend, with isolated amounts up to 20 inches possible…according to the National Hurricane Center. This could lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

Here’s the current Rainfall Outlook through Sunday

Although TC 02E is not expected to directly impact the United States, however, early season tropical systems can bring moisture into the southeast U.S at times.

According to the National Hurricane Center  (NHC), the low pressure area located to the southeast of Acapulco, Mexico, has developed multiple bands of deep convection, and various satellite data suggest the system has a well-defined circulation. Based on these, the system is designated as Tropical Depression Two-E.

A mid- to upper-level trough seen in water vapor imagery over northern Mexico, is expected to steer the cyclone slowly northeastward for the next 36 hours or so. After that, there is significant divergence in the track guidance. The GFS, Canadian, and HWRF models move the cyclone inland over southeastern Mexico in 48-60 hours, while the ECMWF and UKMET show the system stalling over the Pacific as a weak mid-level ridge builds to the north. The latter part of the track forecast somewhat splits the difference between these two solutions, showing the cyclone remaining over the Pacific, although closer to the coast of Mexico than forecast by the ECMWF and UKMET.

The depression is in an environment of 10-15 knots of southerly wind shear, and the large-scale models suggest that this condition should persist for the next 36-48 hours. After that, while the shear may decrease, the cyclone is likely to be close enough to the mountains of southern Mexico to inhibit development.

The intensity forecast, which lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance, calls for slow strengthening for the first 48 hours followed by little change in strength through the remainder of the forecast period. The forecast track, intensity, and wind radii require a Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of the coast of Mexico at this time. However, heavy rains and freshwater flooding are likely to be the biggest threats from this system…even if it makes landfall as a tropical storm.

The NHC Advisory #1 shows that TC 02E had sustained 25 knot winds…with 35 mph gusts

 

Eastern North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 02E

NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2017.

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Central Pacific Basin

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

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