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Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone 19P (Ella) remains active…located about 358 NM northeast of Suva, Fiji

Tropical Cyclone 01E (Adrian) has become a remnant low pressure system…located about 350 miles south-southeast of Salina Cruz, Mexico – Final Advisory


PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, 3-hour precipitation accumulation, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, and Wind Radii for Tropical Cyclone Ella

Tropical Cyclone 19P (Ella) will likely remain at the tropical storm level…as it moves by offshore to the northeast of Fiji

Here’s the latest NOAA satellite image of this system

Looping satellite image of this tropical cyclone

Here’s a near real-time wind profile of TC 19P (Ella)

There are different views on the progress of this category two storm….according to local authorities.

Meteo France says it is likely to weaken later tonight and approach Fiji’s Vanua Levu.

Although the Fiji Met Office is forecasting for Ella to continue moving to the west and to be about 150 kilometers to the northeast of Fiji’s most northern island Cikobia…by the middle of Friday afternoon.

It also says the storm will intensify to category three, as it moves further west and away from Fiji .

Fiji forecaster Steven Meke said they were still anticipating significant impacts.

“At this stage the track has moved slightly north from Vanua Levu, although as it comes close we still expect the center to come close to Cikobia, but just to the north of Cikobia…and then it moves to the west of Fiji.

“But with that said, we still anticipate the gale force winds, the damaging gale force winds to affect the northern part – that is Vanua Levu, Taveuni and Cikobia.”

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), TC 19P, satellite imagery shows pulsating deep convection, with curved cloud bands wrapping into a defined low level circulation center. In addition, microwave images reveals a well defined 20 NM diameter eye feature.

Environmental analysis indicates TC 19P is in an area of favorable sea surface temperatures and fair outflow, although wind shear is moderately strong at 15-20 knots.

The system will tracking to the southwest over the next 12-24 hours, as a trough of low pressure moves into the region. TC Ella is expected to weaken with 72 hours, in response to a decrease in available moisture and high levels of wind shear…due to the approaching trough.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #5 were 55 knots with gusts of 70 knots.


PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, 3-hour precipitation totals, for now retiring Tropical Cyclone Adrian

Post-tropical cyclone 01E (Adrian) is falling apart over the eastern Pacific…Final Advisory

Thunderstorm activity is occurring far from the center along the coasts of southeast Mexico, Guatemala and El Salvador.

Rainfall forecast in this area through Sunday

Here’s the latest satellite image of this system, with the looping version

What’s left of Adrian is moving toward the northwest at near 7 mph.

Here’s the near real time wind profile for this weakening former tropical cyclone

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Adrian consists of a rather insignificant-looking swirl of low clouds, with just a few isolated showers.

The system has been devoid of significant deep convection since yesterday afternoon, so it is being declared a remnant low on this advisory.

This post-tropical cyclone is likely to turn toward the west-northwest, to the south of a weak mid-level ridge over the next couple of days…and meander within weak steering flow to the south of Mexico later in the forecast period.

Tropical cyclone Adrian was the earliest tropical storm on record to form in the northeast Pacific Basin.

An average season in the eastern Pacific Ocean yields 15 named tropical storms and eight hurricanes…four of which become major hurricanes.


Eastern North Pacific

Post-Tropical Cyclone 01E (Adrian) Final Advisory

NHC textual forecast
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Eastern Pacific Basin

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2016. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2016 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2017.

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Central Pacific Basin

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 19P (Ella)

JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

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