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May
10
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone 18P (Donna) is dissipating…located about 116 NM east-southeast of Noumea, New Caledonia – Final Warning

Tropical Cyclone 19P (Ella) remains active…located about 217 NM west of Pago Pago, American Samoa

Tropical Cyclone 01E (Adrian) remains active…located about 435 miles south-southeast of Salina Cruz, Mexico

 

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, TAOS wind estimates, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, for Retiring Tropical Cyclone Donna

Tropical Cyclone 18P (Donna) is now quickly dissipating…and has been given its Final Warning

Here’s the latest NOAA satellite image of this system

Looping satellite image of this weakening tropical cyclone

Here’s a near real-time wind profile of TC 18P

Tropical Cyclone Donna passed just to the west of Vanuatu this past weekend, bringing flooding rains and damaging winds. The storm is now in the process of moving away to the southeast of New Caledonia.

At its strongest, Donna’s winds reached 133 miles an hour with gusts of up to 162 mph. That made it equivalent to a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson wind scale.

This in turn made Donna the strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded during the month of May…in the southern hemisphere.

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), TC 18P, satellite imagery depicts an elongated and rapidly deteriorating fully exposed low level circulation center.

Environmental conditions have deteriorated significantly, and TC Donna is expected to weaken further, while tracking southward over the next 12 hours.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #25 were 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots.

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, TAOS wind estimates, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, for Tropical Cyclone Ella

>>> Tropical Cyclone 19P (Ella) will remain at the tropical storm scale…as it clips Fiji

Here’s the latest NOAA satellite image of this system

Looping satellite image of this developing tropical cyclone

Here’s a near real-time wind profile of TC 19P (Ella)

TS Ella will deliver locally heavy rains to parts of Fiji…with the  threat of flooding.

The Fiji Meteorological Service said the cyclone was northeast of Vanua Belavu, the third-largest island in Fiji’s Lau archipelago Wednesday, and was moving west southwest towards Fiji.

In a warning, the Metservice said a tropical cyclone alert remained in force for Lau and the Lamaiviti group, Vanua Levu, Tavenui and nearby smaller islands.

It said people in those areas could expect strong southeasterly winds with average speeds of 45 km/h gusting to 80km/h, which were predicted to increase further to damaging gale force winds of 85km/h to 110km/h Thursday evening.

For the rest of Fiji, moderate to fresh southeasterly winds were predicted to strengthen with gusts increasing to 80km/h on Friday.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms were also forecast with showers becoming frequent and heavy.

Fiji’s Chief of Operations Rusiate Tudravu told FBC News, people needed to take the necessary precautions for heavy rain and flash flooding in low lying areas.

People in Tonga’s northernmost island group, the Niuas, were also preparing for Cyclone Ella.

The country’s National Emergency Management Office director Leveni ‘Aho said emergency services were on standby there, where up to 700 people live.

He said locals were preparing for tonight, when the storm would be at its closest.

“Get their fuel and batteries and radio and things like that. The normal things we do in preparation for cyclones.”

There were no reports of damage yet, he said.

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), TC 19P, satellite imagery shows a system which has become less well defined over the past 12 hours…with a disorganized convective signature.

Environmental analysis shows marginal conditions, with warm sea surface temperatures…with moderate 15-20 knot wind shear.

Conditions are expected to remain marginal with slight improvement over the next 24 hours…allowing the system to intensify slightly to 50 knots.

Nearly stationary movement, with increasing wind shear will lead to rapid weakening, as the storm shifts west-northwest…and finally northwest.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #3 were 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots.

 

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, TAOS wind estimates, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, for Tropical Cyclone Adrian

Tropical Storm 01E (Adrian) is active in the eastern Pacific…on its way to becoming the eastern Pacific’s first hurricane of the 2017 season

Tropical Storm Adrian is the earliest tropical storm on record to form in the northeast Pacific Basin…and may linger off the southern Mexican Pacific coast for 10-days or more.

For the time being, heavy rain and flash flooding are the greatest threats to Mexico. This threat would manifest as the outer rain bands may produce heavy rain, at times, leading to local flash flooding and mudslides in portions of southern Mexico and the mountains of Guatemala…early next week.

Rainfall forecast through Saturday…most of which will occur in Costa Rica

In addition, TS Adrian should eventually produce high surf reaching the coast of southern Mexico, Guatemala and El Salvador by later in the week…with coastal flooding and dangerous rip currents possible.

Here’s the latest satellite image of this system, with the looping version…and what the computer models are showing

TS Adrian is moving toward the northwest at near 7 mph.

Here’s the near real time wind profile for this strengthening tropical cyclone

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Adrian’s satellite presentation is less organized than yesterday, with little evidence of convective banding features, along with a few bursts of deep convection to the north and northwest of the estimated center.

The global models do not call for Adrian to intensify over the next several days, although the models still show the system becoming a hurricane within 72 hours.

The official intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one, and is of low confidence. Even with high-resolution visible imagery, the center is difficult to locate.

A mid-level ridge to the north of Adrian should induce a northwestward to west-northwestward motion for the next several days. Later in the forecast period, the ridge is predicted to collapse, leaving the tropical cyclone in a region of very weak steering currents. Based on this expected evolution of the large-scale flow, the official track forecast shows no motion by days 4 and 5.

 

Eastern North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 01E (Adrian)

NHC textual forecast
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Eastern Pacific Basin

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2016. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2016 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2017.

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Central Pacific Basin

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 18P (Donna) Final Warning

JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Tropical Cyclone 19P (Ella)

JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

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