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May
04
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone 18P (Donna) remains active…located about 318 NM north of Port Vila, Vanuatu

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, TAOS wind estimates, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, for Tropical Cyclone Donna

Tropical Cyclone 18P (Donna) is now at typhoon strength, although it will become stronger, as it comes very close to…or impacts the Vanuata Islands directly.

Here’s the latest NOAA satellite image of this system – and what the comuter models are showing.

A NASA satellite image of TC Donna…taken today

Here’s a near real-time wind profile of TC 18P

Looping satellite image of this developing tropical cyclone

Current expectations are for Donna to reach the equivalent of a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale) by this weekend.

A tropical cyclone warning has been issued for several provinces of Vanuatu, including Torba, Penama, Sanma and Melampa. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall with flash flooding are expected in those northern provinces. Rough seas and coastal flooding are also anticipated.

Widespread rainfall totals of over 6 inches are expected through Monday…with more than 12 inches possible in some of the northern islands.

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), TC 18P, satellite imagery shows the system has continued to deepen, as spiral cloud bands curved tighter into the center.

Environmental analysis indicates a very favorable environment with warm sea surface temperatures, and excellent radial outflow aloft.

There is light to moderately strong wind shear, which is mostly offset by the outflow and the storm motion…which is in-phase with the upper level flow.

The storm will track poleward (South Pole), followed by an accelerated southeastward motion. As favorable conditions persist in the near to mid-term, the system will continue to intensify, peaking at near 110 knots within 72 hours. Thereafter, increasing wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures will gradually weaken the [typhoon strength] storm.

The current JTWC warning has consistently indicated a track running parallel and near the Vanuatu Island chain.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #4 were 80 knots with gusts of 100 knots.

 

Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2016. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2016 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2017.

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Eastern Pacific Basin

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2016. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2016 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2017.

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Central Pacific Basin

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 18P (Donna)

JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

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