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Apr
27
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone 03W (Muifa) remains active…located about 489 NM north-northwest of Yap

Tropical Cyclone 17S (Frances) is active…located about 175 NM west-northwest of Darwin, Australia

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, for Tropical Cyclone 03W (Muifa)

Tropical Depression 03W (Muifa) will weaken steadily…while remaining over the open ocean away from land

Here’s the latest NOAA satellite image of this system – and what the computer models are showing.

Here’s a near real-time wind profile of TC 03W

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite images show a slight circulation, and cloud banding with limited convection…which is dissipating.

Upper level analysis indicates the weakening system currently has strong poleward outflow, light wind shear, and is in an area of warm sea surface temperatures…although no intensification is expected.

The forecast track has shifted to the north slightly since the previous warning.

TC Muifa will continue to track northeastward, while dissipating within 24 hours…as it moves poleward into an increasingly unfavorable wind shear environment.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #12 were 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots.

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, for Tropical Cyclone 17S (Frances)

Tropical Cyclone 17S (Frances) is now active, while remaining offshore from northern Australia…and south of the Indonesian Islands

Here’s the latest NOAA satellite image of this system – and what the computer models are showing.

Here’s a near real-time wind profile of TC 17S

A recent NASA satellite image of TC Frances

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), TC 17S has become much better organized, while tracking southwestward over the past 12 hours.

Upper level analysis indicates strong poleward outflow, along with low to moderately strong wind shear…and passage over very warm water. These generally favorable environmental conditions have supported  development, with additional intensification expected over the next 24 hours.

After 24 hours, upper level conditions are expected to become less favorable, with wind shear increasing, and divergence aloft decreasing through the remainder of the forecast period.

Diminished upper level support, and potential entrainment of more stable air are expected to weaken the system below the dissipation threshold within 72 hours.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #2 were 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (ABM) has posted a warning from Kuri Bay to Wyndham, not including Wyndham. In addition, the ABM noted that tides between Kalumburu and Wyndham are likely to rise above normal high tide mark…with very rough seas and flooding of low-lying coastal areas.

ABM said “Tropical Cyclone Frances is expected to intensify as it moves southwest through the Timor Sea tonight, possibly developing into a Category 2 system early on Friday, [April 28]. The cyclone is expected to remain over water as it heads towards the Indian Ocean, however if it takes a more southerly track peripheral gales may affect the north Kimberley coast later Friday.”

 

Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2016. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2016 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2017.

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Eastern Pacific Basin

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2016. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2016 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2017.

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Central Pacific Basin

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 03W (Muifa)

JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite Image

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 17S (Frances)

JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite Image

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

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