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Apr
26
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone 03W (Muifa) remains active…located about 754 NM south-southwest of Iwo To, Japan

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, for Tropical Cyclone 03W (Muifa)

Tropical Storm 03W (Muifa) will be modestly strengthening…although remaining over the open ocean away from land

Here’s the latest NOAA satellite image of this system – and what the computer models are showing.

Here’s a near real-time wind profile of TC 03W

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite images show the system has maintained a degree of wrap, despite signs of convective decay, and its struggle to maintain consolidation.

Upper level analysis indicates increasing wind shear, which is being offset by excellent poleward outflow.

TC 03W will continue tracking northward over the next 12 hours… and then will shift northeast thereafter.

Good outflow and low wind shear values over the next 12 hours will promote moderate intensification, peaking at near 45 knots. Then, increased wind shear associated with the prevailing westerlies rapidly erode…and then dissipate the storm within 48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #8 were 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots.

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, and 1-day precipitation accumulation layers

Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance, which is being referred to as Invest 97P…located approximately 265 NM north of Darwin, Australia

Here’s a satellite image of this disturbance…along with what the computer models are showing

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite images show a quickly consolidating low level circulation, with constant convection wrapping into the center…and a mostly circular shape.

In addition, a microwave image shows deep convection wrapping into the center, which has recently become less and less elongated.

The disturbance is currently located in a marginal although improving environment, with moderate wind shear of 20 knots. This however is being offset by strong poleward upper level outflow, and very warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models are in agreement that the disturbance will continue to track to the southwest over the next several days, and are showing intensification and consolidation within the next 24-48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 25-30 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours has been upgraded to high.

 

Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2016. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2016 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2017.

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Eastern Pacific Basin

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2016. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2016 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2017.

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Central Pacific Basin

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 03W (Muifa)

JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite Image

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

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