Pacific Disaster Center Fostering Disaster Resilient Communities  

Providing Weather and Hazard Related News

Weather Wall

 

 

Apr
11
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone 16P (Cook) is dissipating…located about 490 NM south of Noumea, New Caledonia – Final Warning

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, and 3-hour precipitation accumulation layers for retiring Tropical Cyclone 16P (Cook)

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, and 3-hour precipitation accumulation layers for retiring Tropical Cyclone 16P (Cook)

Tropical Cyclone 16P (Cook) is rapidly falling apart…now well south of New Caledonia – Final Warning

Here’s the latest NOAA satellite image of this system – and what the computer models are showing.

Here’s a near real-time wind profile of TC Cook

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite images show a rapidly decaying system, with significant wind shear…as it pushes into the prevailing upper level westerlies.

TC 16P is currently tracking southeastward, and is expected to transition into an extra-tropical system within the next 12 hours.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #8 were 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots.

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, and 3-hour precipitation accumulation layers

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, and 3-hour precipitation accumulation layers

Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 92W…which is located approximately 145 NM north of Yap

Here’s the NOAA satellite image of this system, along with what the computer models are showing.

Here’s a near real-time wind profile of this disturbance

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite images show shallow convection along the western semi-circle of a low level circulation center.

Environmental conditions are marginally favorable, with low 10-15 knot wind shear, diffluent outflow…and warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models show slow development of the system, as it tracks to the northwest over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 15-20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains medium.

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, and 3-hour precipitation accumulation layers

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, and 3-hour precipitation accumulation layers

Finally, there’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 96S…which is located approximately 50 NM north-northwest of Darwin, Australia

Here’s a satellite image of Australia…along with what the computer models are showing.

Here’s a near real-time wind profile of this disturbance

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite images show that the disturbance has degraded considerably, and no longer has convection with it.

The system is beginning to move over land, with primarily 15-20 knot winds…with some 30 knot winds located on the southwest quadrant.

The disturbance is currently located in a poor environment, due to high 30-40 knot wind shear, which is being offset by warm sea surface temperatures…and poleward divergence aloft.

Global models are in agreement that the disturbance will continue to track southwest…although not in agreement on development.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 25-30 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours has been downgraded to low.

 

Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2016. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2016 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2017.

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Eastern Pacific Basin

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2016. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2016 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2017.

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Central Pacific Basin

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 16P (Cook) – Final Warning

JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite Image

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.