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Apr
10
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone 15S (Ernie) is dissipating…located about 660 NM west-northwest of Learmonth, Australia – Final Warning

Tropical Cyclone 16P (Cook) remains active…located about 47 NM south-southwest of Noumea, New Caledonia

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, and 3-hour precipitation accumulation layers, for retiring Tropical Cyclone 14S (Ernie)

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, and 3-hour precipitation accumulation layers, for retiring Tropical Cyclone 14S (Ernie)

Tropical Cyclone 15S (Ernie) is dissipating…remaining over the South Indian Ocean away from land – Final Warning

Here’s the latest NOAA satellite image of this system – and what the computer models are showing.

Here’s a near real-time wind profile of TC Ernie

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite images show a partially exposed low level circulation center, with flaring deep convection…sheared to the southeast of the system.

Environmental conditions continue to degrade with wind shear values increasing to 25-30 knots, and sea surface temperatures decreasing.

TC 15S is currently tracking southwestward, while the system has begun to dissipate, and is forecast to reach full dissipation within 12 hours…due to persistent unfavorable environmental conditions.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #9 were 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots.

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, 3-hour precipitation accumulation layers for Tropical Cyclone 16P (Cook)

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, 3-hour precipitation accumulation layers for Tropical Cyclone 16P (Cook)

Tropical Cyclone 16P (Cook) remains active…and has tracked across New Caledonia

Here’s the latest NOAA satellite image of this system – and what the computer models are showing.

Here’s a near real-time wind profile of TC Cook

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite images show a decrease in central convection and warming cloud tops over the system…since it recently made landfall over New Caledonia.

Despite an excellent poleward outflow channel, environmental conditions are no longer supportive of development, with wind shear increasing to 20 knots, and sea surface temperatures decreasing.

TC 16P is currently tracking southward, and then will begin to accelerate southeastward. TC Cook is forecast to weaken steadily as environmental conditions remain unfavorable for development.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #6 were 75 knots with gusts of 90 knots.

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, and 3-hour precipitation accumulation layers

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, and 3-hour precipitation accumulation layers

Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 96S…which is located approximately 175 NM north-northeast of Darwin, Australia

Here’s a satellite image of Australia…along with what the computer models are showing.

Here’s a near real-time wind profile of this disturbance

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite images show a disorganized low level circulation, which is beginning to consolidate…with wrapping convection into it.

The system is currently located in a mostly unfavorable environment, due to high levels of 30-40 knot wind shear, although offset by strong poleward upper outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models are in agreement that the disturbance will continue to track southwest…although are divided as to how long it will take to intensify.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 25-30 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is high.

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, and 3-hour precipitation accumulation layers

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, and 3-hour precipitation accumulation layers

Finally, there’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 92W…which is located approximately 282 NM south-southwest of Chuuk

Here’s the NOAA satellite image of this system, along with what the computer models are showing.

Here’s a near real-time wind profile of this disturbance

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite images show deep flaring convection, with formative cloud banding…wrapping into a developing low level circulation center.

Environmental conditions show improved upper level outflow and light to moderately strong 15-20 knot wind shear…along with high sea surface temperatures.

Global models show slow development of the system, as it tracks to the northwest over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 15-20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is medium.

 

Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2016. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2016 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2017.

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Eastern Pacific Basin

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2016. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2016 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2017.

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Central Pacific Basin

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 16P (Cook)

JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite Image

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 15S (Ernie) Final Warning

JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite Image

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

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