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Apr
07
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone 15S (Ernie) remains active…located about 467 NM north-northwest of Learmonth, Australia

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, and 3-hour precipitation accumulation layers, with Estimated Wind Impacts (TAOS Model) for Tropical Cyclone 14S (Ernie)

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, Tropical Cyclone segments and positions, 3-hour precipitation accumulation layers, and Estimated Wind Impacts (TAOS Model) for Tropical Cyclone 14S (Ernie)

Tropical Cyclone 15S (Ernie) remains active…and will remain over the South Indian Ocean away from land

Here’s the latest NOAA satellite image of this system – and what the computer models are showing.

Here’s a near real-time wind profile of TC Ernie

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite images show the system has rapidly intensified, as indicated by the quick development of very tightly curved deep convective cloud bands…into a well defined 10 NM eye.

Upper level analysis indicates the system is in an area of light to moderately strong 10-15 knot wind shear, and excellent poleward outflow. These environmental conditions, plus warm sea surface temperatures, and a storm motion in phase with the upper wind flow…have combined to contribute to the rapid intensification (RI).

TC 15S is expected to turn more westward after 24 hours, with the favorable conditions continuing through this period. This will result in further intensification…to a peak of 115 knots, before the cyclone turns westward into increasing wind shear.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #3 were 95 knots with gusts of 115 knots.

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards and Rainfall Accumulation (3-hour) layers

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards and Rainfall Accumulation (3-hour) layers

Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 95P…which is located approximately 455 NM northwest of Nadi, Fiji

Here’s a NOAA satellite image of 95P, along with what the computer models are showing.

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite images show deep persistent convection, and formative cloud banding beginning to consolidate…around the low level circulation.

The system is in a favorable environment with radial outflow, along with light 10-15 knot wind shear…and warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models track this disturbance towards the southwest.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 20-25 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is high.

 

Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2016. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2016 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2017.

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Eastern Pacific Basin

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2016. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2016 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2017.

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Central Pacific Basin

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 14S (Ernie)

JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite Image

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

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