Pacific Disaster Center Fostering Disaster Resilient Communities  

Providing Weather and Hazard Related News

Weather Wall

 

 

Apr
05
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone 14P is now active…located about 91 NM southwest of Niue

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Segments, Positions, and PDC Active Hazards for Tropical Cyclone 14P

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Segments, Positions, and PDC Active Hazards for Tropical Cyclone 14P

Tropical Cyclone 14P will remain at a lower tropical storm strength…as it heads generally towards Tonga

Here’s the latest NOAA satellite image of this system…and what the computer models are showing

Here’s a near real-time wind profile of TC 14P

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite images show a defined, although partially exposed low level circulation center, with flaring, deep convection along the eastern semi-circle.

Environmental conditions are slightly favorable for development, with good poleward outflow and warm sea surface temperatures, however…wind shear values remain moderate to strong (20-25 knots).

TC 14P is tracking west-southwestward, and is forecast to remain on this general bearing over the next 24 hours.

The cyclone may have a short window of weak intensification, while the outflow and sea surface temperatures remain supportive. However, beyond 24 hours, an approaching trough of low pressure from the west will begin to recurve this storm southward into an area of strong wind shear…and colder sea surface temperatures.

These less favorable environmental conditions will lead to full dissipation of the system within 48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #1 were 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots.

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards and Rainfall Accumulation (3-hour) layers

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards and Rainfall Accumulation (3-hour) layers

Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 94S…which is located approximately 450 NM southeast of Jakarta

Here’s a NOAA satellite image of 94S, along with what the computer models are showing.

Here’s a near real-time wind profile of this area in the South Indian Ocean.

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite images depict a rapidly consolidating low level circulation center, with deep convection building over the system.

Environmental conditions are favorable for development with improved outflow, low 5-10 knot wind shear…and warm sea surface temperatures.

Dynamic model guidance shows steady development of the system over the next 48 hours, as the disturbance tracks southwestward.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 20-25 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is medium.

 

Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2016. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2016 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2017.

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Eastern Pacific Basin

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2016. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2016 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2017.

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Central Pacific Basin

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 13P

JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite Image

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.