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Mar
24
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone 12S (Caleb) remains active…located about 270 NM east-southeast of Cocos Island, Australia

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Segments, Positions, 3-hour rainfall accumulations, and PDC Active Hazards for Tropical Cyclone 12S (Caleb)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Segments, Positions, 3-hour rainfall accumulations, and PDC Active Hazards for Tropical Cyclone 12S (Caleb)

Tropical Cyclone 12S (Caleb) will remain over the South Indian Ocean…away from land

Here’s the latest NOAA satellite image of this system…and what the computer models are showing

Here’s a near real-time wind profile of TC 12S

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite images show a system that has struggled over the past 6-hours, with limited flaring central convection being displaced to the west…leaving the low level center partially exposed.

Environmental conditions are not showing any signs of improvement, with wind shear increasing. Meanwhile, sea surface temperatures currently support development, although decrease rapidly to the south.

Over the next 12-24 hours, the system will slow, and then become near stationary beyond 24 hours…weakening significantly due to stronger wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures.

TC 12S is expected to dissipate within 72 hours.

The models show some divergence, thus the JTWC is noting a low confidence in the forecast track.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #3 were 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots.

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards and Rainfall Accumulation (3-hour) layers

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards and Rainfall Accumulation (3-hour) layers

Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 91P…which is located approximately 100 NM east-northeast of Willis Island, Australia

Here’s a Navy satellite image of 91P, along with what the computer models are showing.

Here’s a near real-time wind profile of Invest 91P

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite images show curved cloud banding wrapping into a rapidly developing low level circulation center.

The disturbance is currently located in a favorable environment, with excellent dual channel outflow, low wind shear…and warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models are showing Invest 91P developing into a tropical cyclone within 12-24 hours…as the disturbance tracks southwestward…towards the coast of Australia.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 25-30 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is high.

 

Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2016. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2016 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2017.

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Eastern Pacific Basin

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2016. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2016 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2017.

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Central Pacific Basin

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 12S (Caleb)

JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite Image

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

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