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Mar
23
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone 12S (Caleb) is now active…located about 215 NM east of Cocos Island, Australia

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Segments, Positions, 3-hour rainfall accumulations, and PDC Active Hazards for Tropical Cyclone 12S (Caleb)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Segments, Positions, 3-hour rainfall accumulations, and PDC Active Hazards for Tropical Cyclone 12S (Caleb)

Tropical Cyclone 12S (Caleb) will remain over the South Indian Ocean…away from land

Here’s the latest NOAA satellite image of this system…and what the computer models are showing

Here’s a near real-time wind profile of TC 12S

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite images show a partially exposed low level circulation center, with deep flaring convection.

Upper level analysis indicates that TC 12S has an improving outflow situation, with high diffluence on the western periphery, and a well established poleward channel. However, the prevailing easterly flow is displacing the deep convection off to the west.

The easterly winds aloft are expected to weaken slightly over the next 24 hours, allowing TC Caleb to intensify to 45 knots. Although, the high wind shear will persist throughout the forecast period, limiting the potential for further intensification.

TC 12S is expected to initially move southwestward, then become nearly stationary…before finally taking on a westerly track.

The models show some divergence after 36 hours, thus the JTWC is noting a low confidence in the position and timing of the turn west.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #1 were 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots.

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards and Rainfall Accumulation (3-hour) layers.

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards and Rainfall Accumulation (3-hour) layers

Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 91P…which is located approximately 161 NM northeast of Willis Island, Australia

Here’s a Navy satellite image of 91P, along with what the computer models are showing.

Here’s a near real-time wind profile of Invest 91P

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite images show patches of convection beginning to wrap into a still slightly elongated low level circulation center…with some cloud banding starting to form.

The disturbance is currently located in an area of good outflow aloft, low wind shear, and warm sea water temperatures.

Global models are showing Invest 91P continuing to track to the southwest, with intensification gradually occurring over the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 10-15 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours has been upgraded to medium.

 

Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2016. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2016 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2017.

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Eastern Pacific Basin

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2016. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2016 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2017.

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Central Pacific Basin

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 12S (Caleb)

JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite Image

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

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