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Mar
09
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone 11S remains active…located about 700 NM east-northeast of Mauritius

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards layer, 3-hour precipitation layer, and Estimated Wind Impacts (TAOS Model) for Tropical Cyclone 11S

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards layer, 3-hour precipitation layer, and Estimated Wind Impacts (TAOS Model) for Tropical Cyclone 11S

Tropical Cyclone 11S will likely turn out to be much less intense than TC 09S…which battered Madagascar recently

Here’s the latest NOAA satellite image of this system…and what the computer models are showing

Here’s a near real-time wind profile of TC 11S

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite images show the low level circulation remains sheared from the main convection…limiting significant development.

Upper level analysis indicates that TC 11S has unexpectedly drifted slightly equatorward, into an area of stronger 20-25 knot wind shear. However, a dual outflow channel remains in place, providing excellent ventilation to the associated convection. Additionally, sea surface temperatures are warm and conducive for further development.

TC 11S is expected to begin moving poleward (the south pole) into a lower wind shear environment, and gradually intensify…peaking at near 70 knots.

The current JTWC track keeps this storm well offshore from Madagascar…and brings it southeast of Mauritius and Reunion Islands

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #2 were 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots.

 

Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2016. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2016 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2017.

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Eastern Pacific Basin

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2016. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2016 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2017.

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Central Pacific Basin

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 11S

JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite Image

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

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