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Mar
08
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone 09S (Enawo) is dissipating over Madagascar…located about 459 NM northwest of St. Denis

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards layer, and 3-hour precipitation layer for now retired Tropical Cyclone 09S

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards layer, and 3-hour precipitation layer for now retired Tropical Cyclone 09S

Tropical Cyclone 09S (Enawo) has moved inland over Madagascar – Final Warning

Tropical Cyclone Enawo made landfall Tuesday in Madagascar, making it the island’s strongest landfall in 13 years…bringing damaging winds, storm surge flooding, along with heavy rainfall and mudslides.

According to NOAA, Enawo appeared to have been the strongest landfall in Madagascar, by peak estimated winds, since Gafilo made landfall as a Category 4 equivalent storm in roughly the same area of northeast Madagascar in March 2004, claiming 363 lives, according to the EM-DAT International Disaster Database. More than 20,000 homes were destroyed, according to MeteoFrance.

According to local news sources, damaging winds, downed trees, structural damage to homes may be widespread in northern Madagascar through early Wednesday. Power outages may last for days, if not weeks, in the hardest hit parts of northern Madagascar.

Even as Enawo weakens and dissipates, torrential rainfall will be a dangerous threat on this mountainous island. Much of the northeast coast will likely see in excess of 12 inches of rain. Mountainous locations, especially east and northeast-facing slopes, may pick up more.

However, this disaster could have been worse, as more than half of the rivers in Madagascar have dried up, or are flowing at less than 5 percent of their average streamflow…thanks to a two-year El Niño-linked drought. Enawo’s rains will help break the drought, which has caused large-scale crop failures and put over half a million people into acute food insecurity, according to the Famine Early Warning Systems Network.

Here’s the latest NOAA satellite image of this system

Here’s a near real-time wind profile of now retired TC 09S

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite images depicts tightly curved cloud bands continuing to spiral into a defined low level circulation center…as the cyclone moves further inland over Madagascar.

The convective structure has continued to rapidly erode, due to the land interaction with the rugged terrain.

TC Enawo will rapidly dissipate over the next 36 hours due to the impacts of the terrain.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #10 were 90 knots with gusts of 110 knots.

According to NOAA’s Historical Hurricane Tracks website, Madagascar has been struck by twelve major (Category 3 or stronger) tropical cyclones since 1983. The deadliest of these was Tropical Cyclone Gafilo, which hit the island on March 7, 2004, as a Category 4 storm with 150 mph winds. Gafilo killed 363 people; damage was estimated at $250 million, the fifth costliest natural disaster on record in Madagascar. The island’s costliest storm was Tropical Storm Emilie, which caused devastating flooding on February 1, 1977 of $1.4 billion (2017 dollars.) The strongest cyclone to hit Madagascar was Cyclone Hary, which brushed the northeastern coast of the island on March 10. 2002, as a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds. Hary was a small storm, and caused four deaths and relatively little damage in Madagascar.

PDC Disaster Alert, centered on Indonesia, displaying PDC Active Hazards and Rainfall Accumulation (3-hour) layers

PDC Disaster Alert, centered on Indonesia, displaying PDC Active Hazards and Rainfall Accumulation (3-hour) layers

Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 97S…which is located approximately 475 NM south-southwest of Diego Garcia

Here’s a NOAA satellite image, along with what the computer models are showing.

Here’s a near real-time wind profile of Invest 97S

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite images shows a slowly consolidating low level circulation center, with formative deep convective cloud banding.

Upper-level conditions are marginally favorable with good poleward outflow, weak equatorward outflow, warm sea surface temperatures…and low 10-15 knot wind shear.

Global models show the system tracking generally westward, while continuing to consolidate over the next 2-days.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 25-30 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains high.

 

Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2016. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2016 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2017.

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Eastern Pacific Basin

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2016. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2016 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2017.

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Central Pacific Basin

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 09S (Enawo) Final Warning

JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite Image

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

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