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Feb
15
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone 05S (Dineo) remains active…located about 235 NM west-southwest of Europa Island

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Segments, Positions, PDC Active Hazards and Estimated Wind Impacts (TAOS Model) for Tropical Cyclone 05S (Dineo)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Segments, Positions, PDC Active Hazards and Estimated Wind Impacts (TAOS Model) for Tropical Cyclone 05S (Dineo)

Tropical Cyclone 05S (Dineo) has attained 70 knots…and will be making landfall over eastern Mozambique soon

Here’s the latest satellite image of this system…along with what the computer models are showing.

Here’s a near real-time wind profile of TC 05S

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite images depict a well defined spiral system, with deep convective cloud banding…and a newly formed central eye.

TC 05S remains in a favorable environment supporting near radial outflow, low wind shear aloft…and still very warm sea water temperatures.

TC Dineo has likely reached its peak intensity, with no further strengthening expected, as the storm nears the coast, and land interaction occurs…disrupting the low level wind field during the next 6-hours.

TC 05S is moving on a west-southwestward track, and with the system moving inland, full dissipation will occur over land.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #5 were 70 knots with gusts of 85 knots.

According to various South African news sources: 

South African Weather Service chief forecaster Kevin Rae said that Dineo‚ classified for now as a Severe Tropical Storm‚ would gather strength as it reached the coast of Mozambique late on Wednesday evening‚ near Massinga‚ north of Inhambane.

“Dineo is also quite likely to undergo a final surge of intensification‚ just before arriving over land and there is a good chance that it will reach Tropical Cyclone status‚” he said in a weather update.

The storm was positioned in the Mozambique Channel in the early hours of Wednesday moving at about 14km/h.

“Given that Dineo is likely to reach Tropical Cyclone intensity during today‚ the projected maximum strength of surface winds associated with the system will be 70 knots‚ or about 130km/h. Whilst this wind strength is somewhat weaker than the earlier estimate of 160 to 170km/h‚ this is still a formidable storm system which has the potential to cause much damage to coastal and inland infrastructure‚” said Rae.

Communities in southern Mozambique will be vulnerable to torrential rain and flooding.

Sea conditions along the southern Mozambican coast will be very rough – of the order of six to eight metres. There is an additional threat of a marine storm surge along the coastline north of Xai-Xai.

He warned that southern Mozambique would experience “very heavy rainfall‚ most likely in the region of 100 to 200mm per day‚ or even more”.

South Africa will experience heavy rainfall over the northern lowveld and adjacent escarpment regions of Limpopo on Thursday evening.

Rae said the greatest impact was likely overnight on Thursday when “heavy rain can be expected over the entire eastern half of Limpopo‚ including the Kruger National Park‚ where 100 to 200mm of rain could occur per day.”

Dineo was expected to dissipate in the region of Musina and Beit Bridge on Friday and drift towards Botswana by Saturday.

 

Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2016 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2017.

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Eastern Pacific Basin

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2016 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2017.

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Central Pacific Basin

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 05S (Dineo)

JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite Image

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

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