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Feb
14
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone 05S (Dineo) remains active…located about 78 NM west of Europa Island

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Segments, Positions, PDC Active Hazards and Estimated Wind Impacts (TAOS Model) for Tropical Cyclone 05S (Dineo)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Segments, Positions, PDC Active Hazards and Estimated Wind Impacts (TAOS Model) for Tropical Cyclone 05S (Dineo)

Tropical Cyclone 05S (Dineo) remains active in the Mozambique Channel west of Madagascar…forecast to attain 75 knots before making landfall over eastern Mozambique

Here’s the latest satellite image of this system…along with what the computer models are showing.

Here’s a near real-time wind profile of TC 05S / Radar image of this storm

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite images depict a consolidating tightly wound spiral system, with relatively shallow cloud banding…on the western and northern peripheries. These images show an eye feature struggling to form.

TC 05S is in a very favorable environment with upper levels supporting dual channel outflow, and low wind shear. At the same time, sea surface temperatures are extremely warm.

TC Dineo will have a short window to intensify over the next 24 hours, before it makes landfall…reaching a peak intensity of 75 knots.

TC 05S is moving on a southwestward track, with landfall expected within 30 hours. As the system moves inland, it will fully dissipate within 72 hours.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #3 were 55 knots with gusts of 70 knots.

According to various South African news sources: The South African Weather Service has issued an update on the Tropical Storm Dineo, saying it is expected to reach Cyclone status early on Wednesday, 15 February. (local time)

The Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) La Reunion has updated the expected evolution of Dineo, which is now expected to reach Tropical Cyclone stage winds of up to 118-165km/h.

Thereafter, the SA Weather Service says, a “further intensification is expected and the storm will reach the Intense Tropical Cyclone stage with winds of up to 166-212 km/h around midday on Wednesday, before making landfall at midnight near Inhambane in southern Mozambique”.

South Africa will start to experience the rain from this tropical system on Thursday over the Lowveld, spreading westwards by Friday (local time).

Over South Africa on Tuesday, scattered thundershowers are expected to develop mainly this afternoon over the central, south-eastern and eastern parts with heavier showers possible over the south-eastern parts of Mpumalanga and northern parts of KwaZulu-Natal.

 

Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2016 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2017.

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Eastern Pacific Basin

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2016 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2017.

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Central Pacific Basin

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 05S (Dineo)

JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite Image

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

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