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Feb
13
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone 05S (Dineo) is now active…located about 48 NM north-northwest of Europa Island

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Segments, Positions, PDC Active Hazards and Estimated Wind Impacts (TAOS Model) for Tropical Cyclone 05S

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Segments, Positions, PDC Active Hazards and Estimated Wind Impacts (TAOS Model) for Tropical Cyclone 05S

Tropical Cyclone 05S (Dineo) is now active in the Mozambique Channel west of Madagascar…forecast to attain 65 knots before making landfall over eastern Mozambique

Here’s the latest satellite image of this system…along with what the computer models are showing.

Here’s a near real-time wind profile of TC 05S

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite images depict a consolidating low level circulation center, with deep convective cloud bands wrapping into the center.

TC 05S is in a favorable environment with near radial outflow, low to moderate wind shear aloft…and warm sea surface temperatures.

Dineo is forecast to track slowly south to southwestward, then after 36 hours…the system should turn west to west-northwest

TC 05S will intensify steadily to 65 knots within 36 hours…then weaken quickly as it makes landfall and tracks inland.

This storm will make landfall along the east coast of Mozambique within 60 hours, and then dissipate over land within 96 hours.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #1 were 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots.

According to the South African Weather Service: “The weather system has the potential to result in severe weather impacts over the north-eastern parts of the country later this week,” especially in parts of the Mpumalanga and Limpopo provinces.

When the storm passes over Mozambique on Thursday and Friday, 16 and 17 February, the SA Weather Service predicts that the north-eastern parts of South Africa, including parts of the Kruger National Park, may experience heavy rain as well as localized flooding.

“The most likely areas to be affected include the Ehlanzeni district in Mpumalanga as well as Mopani and Vhembe districts in Limpopo. The heavy rains is also likely to spread to other districts in Limpopo.

 

Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2016 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2017.

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Eastern Pacific Basin

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2016 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2017.

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Central Pacific Basin

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 05S (Dineo)

JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite Image

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

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