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Feb
09
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone 04S (Carlos) is active in the South Indian Ocean…located about 245 NM south-southwest of St. Denis, La Reunion

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Segments and Positions for Tropical Cyclone 04S (Carlos)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Segments and Positions for Tropical Cyclone 04S (Carlos)

Tropical Cyclone 04S (Carlos) is active in the South Indian Ocean

Here’s the latest satellite image of this system

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #11 were 60 knots with gusts of 75 knots.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours, and two tropical disturbances with a low (yellow) chance, respectively, of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours, and a tropical disturbances with a low (yellow) chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours

Also, there is an area of tropical disturbance (93S) in the South Indian Ocean, to the east of Broome, Australia, with a low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.

Here’s a NOAA satellite image of this area of disturbed weather…along with what the computer models are showing

 

Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2016 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2017.

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Eastern Pacific Basin

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2016 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2017.

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Central Pacific Basin

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 04S (Carlos)

JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite Image

JTWC Significant Tropical Weather Advisory 091800Z-101800Z Feb 2017

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 21.8S 118.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.9S 113.6E, APPROXIMATELY 160 NM SOUTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 091412Z METOP-A 89GHZ AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. A 091600Z CARNAVON ABOM RADAR LOOP SHOWS LIMITED CLOUD COVER IN BANDS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOW THAT, ALTHOUGH THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS) AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, IT IS OFFSET BY LOW SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (24-26 DEGREES C) AND LAND INTERACTION TO THE EAST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH INTENSIFICATION UNLIKELY DUE TO DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO THE SOUTH OF THE DISTURBANCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

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