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Feb
08
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone 04S (Carlos) is active in the South Indian Ocean…located about 197 NM southwest of St. Denis, La Reunion

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Segments and Positions for Tropical Cyclone 04S (Carlos)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Segments and Positions for Tropical Cyclone 04S (Carlos)

Tropical Cyclone 04S (Carlos) is active in the South Indian Ocean

Here’s the latest satellite image of this system

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #09 were 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours, and two tropical disturbances with a low (yellow) chance, respectively, of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours, and two tropical disturbances with a low (yellow) chance, respectively, of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours

Also, there is an area of tropical disturbance (93S) in the South Indian Ocean, to the east of Broome, Australia, with a low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.

Here’s a NOAA satellite image of this area of disturbed weather…along with what the computer models are showing

And an area of tropical disturbance (95P) in the South Pacific Ocean, to the east of New Caledonia, with a low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.

Here’s a NOAA satellite image of this area of disturbed weather…along with what the computer models are showing

Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2016 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2017.

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Eastern Pacific Basin

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2016 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2017.

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Central Pacific Basin

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

 

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

JTWC Significant Tropical Weather Advisory 080600Z-090600Z Feb 2017

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 19.6S 164.5E, APPROXIMATELY 190 NM NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 080202Z ATMS NPP 183GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT DEEP CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF A BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC), EVIDENT ON A 072244Z METOP-A 25KM ASCAT PASS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A TROUGH LOCATED WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE LLC INDUCING SUBSIDENCE. THE SYSTEM IS SITUATED IN AN AREA OF DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW AND LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS INDICATES 15-20 KNOT SURFACE WINDS AT THE CENTER OF THE LLC AND WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT, AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS OF 25-30 KNOTS WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 29C. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK BEFORE BECOMING ENTRENCHED WITHIN THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. BASED ON THE ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE AND MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT ANALYZED, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 04S (Carlos)

JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite Image

JTWC Significant Tropical Weather Advisory 081800Z-091800Z Feb 2017

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 21.8S 118.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.8S 118.2E, APPROXIMATELY 235 NM EAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED INLAND AND IS NOW TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHWEST REGION OF AUSTRALIA. THIS IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A BROAD, MONSOON DEPRESSION WITH DEEP CONVECTION AND NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM LEARMONTH INDICATE PERSISTENT 20 TO 25 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL RE-EMERGE OVER WATER NEAR TAU 36, HOWEVER, TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS UNLIKELY DUE TO COLD SST (21-23C) AND THE PRESENCE OF COOLER, DRIER SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG HIGH WEST OF AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 987 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

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