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Feb
07
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone 04S (Carlos) is active in the South Indian Ocean…located about 59 NM west-northwest of St. Denis

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Segments and Positions for Tropical Cyclone 04S (Carlos)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Segments and Positions for Tropical Cyclone 04S (Carlos)

Tropical Cyclone 04S (Carlos) is active in the South Indian Ocean

Here’s the latest satellite image of this system

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #07 were 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours, and a tropical disturbance with medium (orange) chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours, and two tropical disturbances with a medium (orange) and a low (yellow) chance, respectively, of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours

Also, there is an area of tropical disturbance (93S) in the South Indian Ocean, to the east of Broome, Australia, with a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.

Here’s a NOAA satellite image of this area of disturbed weather…along with what the computer models are showing

And an area of tropical disturbance (99W) in the Western Pacific Ocean, to the east of the Philippines, with a low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.

Here’s a NOAA satellite image of this area of disturbed weather…along with what the computer models are showing

Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2016 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2017.

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Eastern Pacific Basin

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2016 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2017.

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Central Pacific Basin

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

JTWC Significant Tropical Weather Advisory 070600Z-080600Z Feb 2017

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.8N 129.8E, APPROXIMATELY 420 NM NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH MULTIPLE VORTICES ROTATING CYCLONICALLY. THIS LLCC IS POSITIONED ADJACENT TO STRONG NORTHEAST SURGE FLOW. A 070130Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURGE, AND 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS A WEAKLY-DEFINED LLCC WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK WITH LITTLE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 04S (Carlos)

JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite Image

JTWC Significant Tropical Weather Advisory 071800Z-081800Z Feb 2017

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.9S 122.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.9S 119.3E, APPROXIMATELY 60 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BEDOUT ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 071409Z MHS METOP-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DISPLAYS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WRAPPING IN ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE OFFSET BY MODERATE-STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25-30 KNOTS TO THE NORTH AND 15-20 KNOTS TO THE SOUTH). A RECENT ASCAT PASS DEPICTS CORE WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS, WITH 30-40 KNOT WINDS OUTSIDE 100 NM TO THE NORTH, AND 15-20 KNOTS ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE CLOSEST TO LAND. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT PROJECTING A SOUTHWEST TRACK AND POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OVER WATER IN THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 989 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

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